History is famously written by the victor. Following the success of historian Karol Nawrocki in the Polish election, this age-old saying rings particularly true. Opinion polling before the election predicted a closely run affair, and in the end the race was won by the narrowest of margins. The defeat of the liberal mayor of Warsaw by an ardent nationalist and eurosceptic will bring challenges to Polish PM Donald Tusk and threaten Poland’s place at the centre of the European Union. With victory Nawrocki becomes the latest European leader to actively ape President Trump as the MAGA movement seeps into European politics.
How close was the Polish election?
After the first exit poll, liberal candidate Rafal Trzaskowski erroneously declared victory. A few hours later the mayor of Warsaw’s hopes were in tatters; Donald Tusk’s liberal agenda threatened; and the EU rocked by the victory of another right-wing nationalist. In the end, Nawrocki claimed victory by a self-proclaimed “razor's-edge”, winning 50.9% of the vote compared to 49.1% for his liberal opponent.
Who were the candidates?
In recent years, the mayors of major cities across Europe have become bastions against populist movements gaining traction across the continent. A couple of weeks ago the liberal, pro-EU Mayor of Bucharest beat his own far-right nationalist MAGA-inspired opponent in the Romanian election. Elsewhere, president of the European Council António Costa spent a successful eight years as the mayor of Lisbon before becoming the Prime Minister of Portugal. Similarly, here in the UK, London mayor Sadiq Khan has long spoken out in favour of progressive policies such as drug reform and closer EU-UK relations.
However, on Sunday Warsaw mayor Rafał Trzaskowski failed, by the smallest of margins, to follow the trend. A political scientist focused on European studies, Trzaskowski was seen as a natural ally to Donald Tusk’s aspirations for a proactive Poland at the centre of the European project alongside the traditional powerhouses of France and Germany. As mayor, he had pursued a progressive agenda focused on providing free nursery care, combatting LGBTQ+ discrimination and drastically improving public transport.
Trzaskowski's defeat by the nationalist historian Karol Nawrocki is a blow for both Tusk and Poland’s place in the European Union. Nawrocki, a candidate for the right-wing nationalist Law and Justice Party (PiS), had risen from relative obscurity in November to national prominence when he was selected by the party. After losing control of the government in 2023 to a coalition of left-wing parties, PiS decided that they needed a clean break from the past, emancipating any potential candidate from retrospective criticism. Nawrocki embodied this, with his lack of political experience seen (as is increasingly common in populist politics) as a strength rather than a hindrance. However, as the election campaign progressed it was alleged that the security services had blocked his access to classified information in a previous role, whilst others have accused him of links with gangs based in the northern city of Gdańsk.
What does the Polish election result mean for Donald Tusk and the EU?
In Poland, the President has the ability to veto any laws passed by the legislature. To overturn such a veto requires a three-fifths majority and with Tusk’s government commanding a slender 53% of parliamentary seats in the lower chamber, this may be insurmountable. The election of Nawrocki therefore continues the efforts made by his predecessor, Andrzej Duda (formerly of the PiS), to frustrate Tusk’s progressive ambitions.
Most notably, the election of Nawrocki is damaging to Tusk’s European ambitions. Since Britain left the European Union, Poland has become increasingly central to the bloc’s politics. With a booming economy that grew 3.2% in Q1 of 2025 and the geographical proximity to the Ukraine-Russian conflict, Tusk saw both the opportunity for and necessity of further integration.
However, PiS’s history of conflict with Germany and tendency to side with the authoritarian Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orbán will further frustrate Tusk’s efforts to fully return Poland to the heart of the EU. Tusk’s election in 2023 was partly built on a mandate which promised to reset relations with the EU after years of democratic backsliding under the previous PiS government. With a right-wing Eurosceptic continuing as President, such hopes for further reform will be dashed. By undermining Tusk’s legislative agenda at home and abroad, Nawrocki will hope to pave the way for a PiS government in 2027, whilst in the meantime he is likely to deepen relations with Robert Fico of Slovakia and Viktor Orbán of Hungary.
MAGA turns MEGA?
According to historian and academic Karolina Wigura, the Polish election was “the most racist and antisemitic campaign observed in Poland since 1989”. With Nawrocki’s anti-migrant rhetoric; opposition to abortion rights; NATO scepticism; and distaste for the EU, the MAGA parallels are evident - and his victory is likely to bring Poland closer to Trump ideologically and strategically.
Nawrocki joins a stable of European politicians trying to ride the coattails of Trump's populist success on our own continent. Alongside the aforementioned Orbán and Fico, Giorgia Meloni in Italy, Marine Le Pen in France and Alice Weidel in Germany have all been keen to show their compatibility with the volatile US President. Closer to home, Reform UK’s councils have announced Trump-like plans to carry out cost-cutting audits and root out DEI initiatives - even where they do not exist.
The creeping tide of right-wing authoritarianism and the repression of rights edged further into the mainstream last night in Poland. But victory is never inevitable. The narrow nature of Nawrocki’s victory highlights the importance of engaging voters and driving turnout to push back against the populist surge. After all, in functioning democracies, history is not just written by the victors - but by the voters.