A major new study to examine the motivations, priorities and life experiences of potential Reform UK voters has identified five distinct groups among Reform’s support
With Reform UK enjoying a sustained poll lead, the survey of over 4,000 people who said they are considering voting for the party was undertaken by YouGov on behalf of Best for Britain. It asked a range of questions to get a detailed understanding of what was driving this increased appetite for populist politics.
Adding a compelling new dimension to the data, an accompanying ethnographic study by public sentiment specialists Faster Horses asked a balanced group of 18 Reform-curious voters from across the UK to document their lives over the course of a typical week. They shared their thoughts and feelings, filmed their neighbourhoods, and recorded their media usage - revealing not just their political journeys, but their day-to-day lived experience and emotional reality.
The findings come as Reform UK tops many opinion polls. A recent MRP from YouGov revealed that if an election were held now, Reform would emerge as the largest party but still fall short of a majority. Campaigners hope that this study can help other parties understand what is driving support for Reform and what can be done to reduce support for populists across Britain.
The Five Groups
The findings revealed five distinct groups of voters among Reform UK voters. Among these groups, it is the Melancholy Middle and Civic Pragmatics who are most likely to be persuaded to vote for another party and who are relatively more progressive in their views. Unsurprisingly, the findings suggest that the Conservatives could also draw support from the Traditional Conservatives group.
While they are united in emotion, potential Reform UK voters are fractured both in terms of their demographics and on the key issues that impact their families and the country.
Voting Intention
Although all of these groups are considering voting Reform UK in the next General Election, analysis suggests the final two of these five groups (Melancholy Middle and Civic Pragmatists), representing 40% of all people considering voting Reform UK, are more likely to be convinced not to do so:
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- Both the previous voting record of these groups and relative openness of these groups to consider voting Labour, Lib Dem or Greens
- Issues relatively more important to these groups align more with policy platforms of Labour, the Lib Dems and the Greens
- Beliefs of these groups align more with style of Labour, the Lib Dems and the Greens (See Below)
What divides people who are considering voting Reform UK
Despite being united on feelings of frustration and pessimism, the study found these groups differ significantly in their demographic make-up and economic backgrounds. They are also acutely divided on key policy areas.
Ethnographic Study
In parallel with the YouGov research, Faster Horses conducted an ethnographic study which asked a group of 18 Reform / Reform-Curious voters from across the UK to document their lives over the course of a typical week. They shared their thoughts and feelings, filmed their neighbourhoods and communities, and recorded their media usage, revealing not just their political journeys, but their lived experience and day-to-day emotional reality.
Key Themes which came through this part of the study included:
- Disillusion and Disappointment
- Economic precarity and the broken promise of hard work and aspiration
- Local decay and the erosion of civic pride
- Deep distrust in politics and the Westminster elite
The Data
The Ethnographic research is published on Faster Horses' website.
Polling undertaken by YouGov on behalf of Best for Britain. Data Tables are available to download.
All figures, unless otherwise stated, are from YouGov Plc. Total sample size was 4,180 adults. Fieldwork was undertaken between 21st - 27th May 2025. The survey was carried out online. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all GB adults either intending to vote for Reform UK, or considering voting Reform UK (6+/10) (aged 18+).