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MRP Analysis: Improving trade access with the EU if it required the UK to follow all EU rules

We asked almost 15,000 people whether they would support or oppose improving trade access with the EU if it required in return that the UK would follow all of the EU's rules, standards, and regulations on goods and services and YouGov used MRP to model constituency-level results.

This question was asked alongside another asking whether people would support or oppose accepting the less-extreme trade-off of the UK being required to follow just some specific EU rules. Of course, it is unlikely that the UK would ever be required to follow all the EU's rules, unless it rejoined the EU and became a full member again. We are therefore able to compare these two sets of results.

426 of Great Britain's 632 parliamentary constituencies would, overall, support the UK being required to follow all EU rules in return for improved trade access, a majority of GB constituencies. 206 overall would oppose it. 

The MRP model predicts that a clear majority of GB constituencies (469 out of 632) would choose Tend to Support as their first choice. The maps of first- and second-placed responses show that even where constituencies would opt to oppose the UK following all EU rules in first place, many would put Tend to Support in second place. 

When we look at the national results from the poll that underpins the MRP analysis, we see that not only would Tend to Support be the most popular option at 26% but that the majority of people in Great Britain  support the measure by 44% to 38% who would oppose it. 

Con-Lab Switchers

Voters who switched to Labour at the 2024 UK General Election but who had previously voted Conservative were a key factor in delivering the landslide result for the Labour Party, and we wanted to understand where they stand on UK-EU co-operation.

While those who voted Labour in 2024, as a whole group, support the UK accepting all EU rules in return for improved trade at a much higher rate (66%) than the GB population as a whole (44%), voters who switched from the Conservatives to Labour as a subset of Labour voters support the measure at a lower rate (39%) than the general population and oppose it (49%) more than both Labour voters (20%) and the GB population generally (28%). That still means that these Con-Lab switchers are split on this issue, with more than a third willing to support even this most unlikely and extreme version of a trade-off with the EU.

Constituencies in focus

North West Essex, the constituency of Conservative Leader Kemi Badenoch, is predicted to be split on whether to support the UK improving trade access with the EU in return for accepting all the EU's rules, with those who would support it being predicted to be ahead of those who would oppose it by a slim margin of just 1 percentage point.

While Reform UK's seat of Boston and Skegness, which recorded the highest Leave vote in the 2016 EU Referendum, would support the UK having to accept some EU rules, it would not support accepting all the EU's rules. Between the two questions, support is predicted to fall from 6 points ahead for some EU rules, to 10 points behind for all EU rules.

In Welsh Llanelli, where Reform surged into second place in 2024 just 1,500 votes behind Labour, the results are split but constituents are predicted to support the UK accepting all EU rules by 2 points over those who would oppose it. That is down from a 22 point lead for those who would support accepting just some specific EU rules.

In Scotland's Stirling and Strathallan constituency, which Labour narrowly gained from the SNP in 2024, voters would still support taking all EU rules by 25 points over those who would oppose. 

in Burnley, Doncaster East and Spen Valley, all northern English seats gained by Labour from the Conservatives in 2024, predicted support for the UK accepting all EU rules is lower than the predicted support for the UK accepting just some specific rules.

Burnley and Spen Valley would both support the UK accepting some EU rules by 50% of their constituents, while 47% of Doncaster East constituents would also support some EU rules. When it comes to accepting all EU rules, support in these constituencies is predicted to be lower.

The Data

Polling and MRP commissioned by Best for Britain. All figures, unless otherwise stated, are from YouGov Plc. Total sample size was 14,858 adults. Fieldwork was undertaken between 16th - 28th December 2024. The survey was carried out online. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all GB adults (aged 18+). 

The question that received MRP analysis was: Would you support or oppose the UK improving trade access with the EU if it required the UK to follow ALL EU rules, standards, and regulations on goods and services?
Possible responses were: Strongly support; Tend to support; Tend to oppose; Strongly oppose; Don't know