We commissioned YouGov to poll almost 15,000 people in Great Britain on whether they think that the UK should be more or less closely aligned with EU standards and regulations, or if they think the current situation is about right and to conduct a constituency-level MRP analysis of the results.
The MRP model predicted that only two GB constituencies would overall favour the UK being less closely aligned with the EU, compared with the 630 which would support the UK becoming more closely aligned. The two constituencies that bucked the trend were Nigel Farage's (Reform UK) seat of Clacton and Conservative-held Castle Point. Clacton has the largest result for 'less close' though 'more closely aligned' is just 3 points behind. In Castle Point 'more closely aligned' is tied with 'less closely aligned'.
233 constituencies are predicted to most favour 'Much Closer' alignment with the EU and despite those two outliers in the overall totals, no constituency was predicted to place Much Less Close or A Little Less Close in either first or second place. In both Clacton and Castle Point the first-placed result was predicted to be that the UK's alignment was 'Currently About Right'.
Looking at the GB population as a whole, 41% say the UK should be more closely aligned with the EU while half that, 20%, say the UK should be less closely aligned.
Con-Lab Switchers
Voters who switched to Labour at the 2024 UK General Election but who had previously voted Conservative were a key factor in delivering the landslide result for the Labour Party, and we wanted to understand where they stand on UK-EU co-operation.
Our research shows that these voters favour closer alignment at about the same proportion as the GB population in general, with 42% saying they want closer alignment on standards and regulations. They are also less keen on the UK being less closely aligned with the EU (19%) compared to the whole GB population (22%). However, these Con-Lab switchers are much more likely to say the current situation is about right (29%) than both the general population (19%) and Labour voters as a whole (16%).
Constituencies in focus
Conservative Leader Kemi Badenoch's constituency North West Essex is predicted by the MRP model to have a very clear preference for closer alignment with EU standards and regulations, with closer alignment 17 points ahead of less close alignment. Badenoch won the seat in 2024 by just 2,600 votes and the MRP now predicts only 21% of her constituents would want less close alignment with the EU.
Even in the constituency with the highest EU Referendum Leave vote and a new Reform UK MP in Richard Tice, Boston and Skegness, constituents are predicted to be split on alignment with the EU, with closer alignment ahead of less close by a margin of just one percentage point.
Llanelli, in Wales, was a Labour hold at the 2024 election but the party lost vote share and faced a serious challenge from Reform UK which came second just 1,500 votes behind. Despite this Reform UK surge, Llanelli's constituents would support closer alignment with the EU (38%) over less close alignment (23%).
Stirling & Strathallan was a Labour gain from the SNP in 2024 by just 1,400 votes. Here, closer alignment (51%) would command the support of a majority of constituents and that option is 35 points ahead of Less Close alignment (16%).
Labour gained Burnley from the Conservatives in 2024, who were pushed into third place by the Liberal Democrats - though the Conservative, Lib Dem and Reform UK candidates only had a few hundred votes separating eachother. Here, the MRP predicts that Burnley's constituents would prefer closer alignment by 16 points over less close alignment.
Doncaster East and the Isle of Axholme was another Labour gain from the Conservatives by 2,311 votes and Reform UK coming a strong third. Even so, constituents here would support closer alignment by 9 points over less close.
In Spen Valley, Labour gained the seat with Reform UK and the Conservatives fighting for second place. Again, constituents here would support closer alignment by 14 points over less close alignment with EU standards and regulations.
The Data
Polling and MRP commissioned by Best for Britain. All figures, unless otherwise stated, are from YouGov Plc. Total sample size was 14,858 adults. Fieldwork was undertaken between 16th - 28th December 2024. The survey was carried out online. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all GB adults (aged 18+).
The question that received MRP analysis was: "Do you think that the UK should be more or less closely aligned with EU standards and regulations, or is the current situation about right?". Respondents were offered the following options: Much closer, A little closer, Currently about right, A little less close, Much less close.