We commissioned YouGov to poll almost 15,000 people in Great Britain on whether they support or oppose the UK and EU agreeing to a Youth Mobility Scheme to allow 18-30 year olds to move between and work or study in the UK and EU. In particular we wanted to understand how varying possible lengths of a Youth Mobility Scheme visa would change public opinion on the idea so we asked about a two-year scheme and a 4-year scheme.
The poll, and constituency-level MRP analysis, found an overwhelming majority want the UK Government to work with the EU to increase the ability of young people to travel and work. Every constituency in Great Britain is predicted by the MRP analysis to favour supporting both lengths of YMS.
More than half of all respondents (54%) said they are in favour of a reciprocal EU-UK Youth Mobility Scheme (YMS) which would give young Brits four years in the EU and young Europeans four years in the UK to work and travel, compared to only a quarter (27%) who are opposed to the idea. Support for a YMS skyrockets to two thirds (66%) of respondents when they are asked if they would be happy with a two year version of the scheme. In these circumstances, fewer than one in five (18%) remain opposed.
Four-year Youth Mobility Scheme
With a four-year YMS, the MRP predicts that every constituency would put either Tend to Support or Strongly Support in first place though the geographic spread of those first places is more varied than found in the two-year question (see below). There are more constituencies that would put Strongly Support in first place for a four-year YMS than a 2-year one, particularly in Scotland where every Scottish constituency is predicted to strongly support a four-year YMS and London where a majority of constituencies would opt to put Strongly Support in first place too.
The underlying poll shows that an outright majority, more than half, of people support a four-year YMS (54%) which jumps to two-thirds of people in support for a 2-year YMS (66%). Less than a third of people oppose (27%) a four-year YMS.
Two-year Youth Mobility Scheme
Focusing on a potential two-year Youth Mobility Scheme which would allow young people from the UK and EU to move between eachothers' countries to live and work for up to two years, the MRP predicts that every constituency would choose either Tend to Support or Strongly Support as their first choice and no constituency would put either of the opposition options in first or second place.
The underlying poll results are very clear, two-thirds of people (66%) support a two-year YMS and only 10% strongly oppose it.
Con-Lab Switchers
Voters who switched from the Conservatives to Labour in 2024 were a key factor in delivering Labour's landslide majority. These voters who formerly supported the Conservatives at elections fairly closely mirror the general public's views on YMS. Half of them (50%) support a four-year YMS, just like the general public (54%), and that support rises to two thirds (67%) who support a two-year YMS alongside the general public (66%). Opposition amongst these voters closely matches the general public too, with just under a third (31%) opposing a four-year YMS and less than a fifth (16%) opposing a two-year version, compared to the general public's similar levels of opposition of 27% for four years and 18% for two years.
Labour voters as a whole, of which the Con-Lab switchers are a subset, favour both lengths of YMS significantly more than the general public. 74% of all Labour's 2024 voters support a four-year YMS which rises to 81% for a two-year YMS.
Reform UK
In the five constituencies won by Reform UK at the last election an EU-UK YMS is extremely popular. On average, twice as many people in these seats want a two-year YMS (58%) compared to those that don’t (23%). Indeed, more people in these seats would be happy with a four-year YMS (45%) than those who are opposed to the idea (33%).
In constituencies where Reform UK came second in 2024 and where they will be hoping to make gains at the next election, all 98 of these constituencies would support both lengths of YMS and in fact while all 98 are predicted by the MRP model to opt for Tend to Support as the most popular option for a two-year YMS, 12 of those constituencies would upgrade to place Strongly Support in first place for a four-year YMS.
Constituencies in focus
North West Essex is Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch's seat and these results show that she is out of step with her constituents on this issue. North West Essex constituents are predicted by the MRP model to closely match the opinion of the population of Great Britain as a whole, with more than half (55%) who would support a four-year YMS which would rise to two-thirds (67%) in support of a two-year version. Badenoch held her seat in 2024 with 35% of the vote in North West Essex with Labour coming a close second with 30%, but on this issue the MRP suggests Badenoch cannot rely on all her voters agreeing with her.
Similarly, in Nigel Farage's constituency of Clacton in Essex the MRP predicts more of his constituents would support both lengths of YMS than oppose it. As might be expected, the level of support in Clacton would be lower than for Great Britain as a whole but still an outright majority of 57% would support a two-year YMS and 43% would support a four-year version. Farage won the seat with 46% of the vote in 2024, so again with the MRP suggesting only 36% of his constituents would oppose a four-year YMS and 25% would oppose a two-year YMS not all of those who voted for Farage agree with him on this issue.
Southend East and Rochford in Essex was a Labour gain from the Conservatives in 2024 with Reform UK in a strong third place. Here the MRP predicts that support for a four-year YMS would lead opposition by 25 percentage points and for a two-year YMS the lead for support would widen to 44 points. An outright majority of constituents are predicted to support both lengths of YMS with 52% who would support four years and 63% who would support two years.
Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley is the constituency of Yvette Cooper, the Labour Home Secretary with responsibility for visas in government. Cooper's constituents are predicted to overall support both lengths of YMS, support for a four-year scheme would be 20 points ahead of opposition for a two-year scheme opposition would be 40 points behind support.
Labour held the Welsh constituency of Llanelli in 2024 despite a very strong challenge from Reform UK who came just 1,500 votes behind. Despite this Reform UK presence in the seat, constituents are predicted to be in majority support of both lengths of YMS.
The Scottish constituency of Stirling and Strathallan was gained by Labour from the SNP in 2024 and constituents are predicted to strongly support both lengths of YMS.
This third Essex constituency, Epping Forest, was held by the Conservatives at the 2024 election. Despite the Conservatives holding on here, the MRP predicts that a majority of constituents would support both lengths of YMS, with 53% who would support a four-year scheme compared to 28% who would oppose it and 64% who would support a two-year scheme compared to 19% who would oppose.
The data
Polling and MRP commissioned by Best for Britain. All figures, unless otherwise stated, are from YouGov Plc. Total sample size was 14,858 adults. Fieldwork was undertaken between 16th - 28th December 2024. The survey was carried out online. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all GB adults (aged 18+).
The question that received MRP analysis was: Would you support or oppose the UK and EU agreeing to a youth mobility scheme to allow 18-30 year olds to move between and work or study in the UK/EU that lasted for…
- Two years
- Four years