The first major seat-level MRP poll of UK Parliamentary voting intention undertaken under the new electoral boundaries suggests that Labour remain comfortably ahead but new analysis shows a significantly high number of marginal seats, where another party is within 5% of the projected winner.

A representative MRP poll of 10,102 voters across Britain undertaken by Focaldata on behalf of Best for Britain shows that while their lead has narrowed, Labour enjoy a 12pt lead over the Conservatives, which at an election would secure them 470 seats, a majority greater than 140 seats.

While Rishi Sunak has made headway in winning back some disaffected Conservative voters with a 23% share up from 18% in October, undecided voters remain the third largest group with 1 in 8 (12%) of respondents continuing to answer ‘Don’t Know’. The polling shows that Tories are on course for 129 seats.

In Scotland, Labour are set to emerge as the largest party once again with 31 seats.  The SNP’s vote share has fallen from 38% to 30%, which is projected to secure them 26 seats.

While Labour’s lead seems unassailable, analysis by Best for Britain shows that undecided voters could once again be pivotal. A hung parliament is possible in the plausible scenario of undecided voters casting their ballot in line with education profile trends, and if Reform UK stand candidates down as UKIP and Brexit Party did in the last two elections. In this scenario Labour’s seat count falls to 316 with the Conservatives on 286.

Best for Britain analysis reveals that the number of seats projected to be marginal at the next election is substantial, around one third of all seats (206) and sheds light on the new key electoral battlegrounds. Scotland, South East England, and the East of England hold over half (101) of marginal seats that Labour will hope to win.

Naomi Smith, Chief Executive of Best for Britain, said,

“The next election still looks like Labour’s to lose but the high number of undecided voters and marginal seats coupled with the threat of right wing parties working together suggests victory is far from in the bag.

“That’s why, when the starting pistol on the next general election is fired, Best for Britain will unleash the most powerful tactical voting operation the UK has ever seen using up to date MRP polling to give people the information they need on how to vote in their area to deliver a change in government.”

Read our FAQ - ‘When is the next UK general election?’