Britain, the PM insisted, was “back on the world stage”. As Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi returns to London, and Chequers, to ink the deal Boris Johnson once inanely pledged would be delivered “by Diwali” (2022), Starmer has the chance to use this as an opportunity - and a gentle reminder. It’s essential the UK and EU start delivering the promise of May’s summit, and it doesn’t appear to be the Brits who are dragging their feet this time. Bluntly, EU institutions and member states need to get their collective acts together. The risk is if Britain can’t get a better level of alignment with the EU - for all industries - in time to start moving the needle on growth, then our leaders will be left with little choice but to look further afield in a bid to achieve their manifesto pledges and fend off Reform, despite no other trade deal offering anywhere near the level of economic boost that a deeper EU deal would.

Of course there are positives to the India deal. In such turbulent times, the Centre for Inclusive Trade Policy (CITP) has rightly said a new free trade agreement (FTA) “between two major economies is a ray of hope for the world”. After years of diplomatic bungling under a succession of Tories determined to offend on a global scale, it's a welcome change to see Starmer engaging successfully with other world leaders - including of the planet’s fifth largest economy. Trade deals and lower tariffs are sorely needed good news for British industries including, in this case, scotch whisky, cars, aircraft, biomedical, pharmaceutical and tech firms. 

But, there are risks too. While India has recently reduced its imports of Russian arms, as  founding members of the BRICS nations group the two countries have longstanding and warm links. While on the domestic front, Modi, who leads the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), has faced criticism for allegedly weakening India’s democracy, presiding over a rise in civic repression, and creating an atmosphere of fear for the country’s Muslim population, as tensions with neighbouring Pakistan simmer. As we’ve seen with the US under President Donald Trump 2.0, Britain has no option but to be pragmatic. The 21st century demands countries operate from a place of realism, not idealism, when it comes to foreign and trade relations. But this must not be at the expense of our values, and we should prioritise those ties of friendship with the many nations who hold them equally dear.

Elsewhere, the potential for tripwires exists within the India deal. If the UK exempts India - which argues its case as a developing nation - from taxes aimed at protecting the climate, such as the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM)  or the Emissions Trading Standard (ETS), talks with the EU could prove more difficult. Any blow to progressing the promise of May’s UK-EU summit, from warm words to definitive action, must be avoided.

Most importantly, achievements with India - while beneficial - cannot be allowed to overshadow the work that needs to be done with the EU. While this deal is the UK’s most economically significant FTA since we left the European Union (EU), it is by no stretch of fevered imagination a ‘Brexit benefit’. According to the Department for Business and Trade’s (DBT) preliminary estimates, the economic impact of the agreement is expected to amount to the equivalent of £4.8bn - or a 0.1% boost to UK GDP by 2040. A drop in the ocean compared to the impact of a painful divorce from our nearest neighbours - and largest market. As the ‘Brexit audit’ report for the Constitution Society and the Federal Trust found recently,  the Office for Budget Responsibility’s prediction of a 4% long-term productivity hit and around £40bn in lost tax revenue - just from 2019 to 2024 - has proved demonstrably correct. The jobs never created, businesses never founded and careers never launched are innumerable, and all contribute to Britain’s worsening sense of economic gloom.

This is why, then, it’s never been so vital for Starmer and his ministers to be laser-focused on where action - and trade deals - will matter most. Thanks to years of stagnation, local services cut to the bone, and the resulting declining senses of pride, trust, and connection, too many voters have been left angry, frustrated and despondent. With Reform UK stoking these tensions, real economic benefits must be delivered, and fast, if this government is to have any hope of retaining the confidence of the communities who expected it to bring about change. The government’s focus must be firmly trained on the EU, and the painstaking diplomatic graft we know is needed to move trade negotiations forward. 

The fastest - and best - way of delivering that progress is via the market right on our doorstep. As Labour MP Emily Thornberry quizzed Starmer on earlier this week, when will the EU and UK progress alignment for other sectors? It’s not only on agri-foods and electricity that we need to align with the EU, but across so many industrial sectors that won’t see growth until the friction Brexit dealt them is removed from our borders. Those closer EU-UK ties would be a gamechanger for Britain’s economy, as well as bringing down costs for consumers at the till, reducing energy bills, and restoring lost opportunities to our young people. Researchers at Frontier Economics found UK long-term growth could be as high as 1.5% - even with the impact of Trump’s trade tariffs - if we align deeply with the EU on all industries. That may sound small, but in the context of the UK economy it represents billions of pounds, in wages, growth, and, crucially, taxes for our stretched public services. 

The visible progress on defence during recent visits by the French President and German Chancellor clearly shows Europe is - cautiously - open to closer ties with us once again. But leaders on all sides must urgently seize this moment. Europe must work now with a British Prime Minister who shares their vision of a democratic, peaceful and prosperous continent - or risk one who would tear up any progress and take us back to square one. Signing the India deal must be a milestone, not a roadblock, on the way to a common sense deal with  the EU.