Labour would win up to 351 seats by working with other internationalist parties at the next election, new analysis reveals.
A 20,000 person sample focaldata poll published last week showed the Conservatives’ 80-seat majority crumbling, with Labour set to win back seats across the North and Midlands. The poll had the Conservatives on 284 seats, with Labour on 283.
Now fresh analysis of the focaldata poll by Best for Britain shows Labour could win up to 351 seats if the party works with the Liberal Democrats and Greens at the next election.
In a scenario where Nigel Farage’s party stands down for the Conservatives, as happened during the 2019 General Election, Labour’s seat total could fall to just 251 seats.
But if Labour join forces with the Greens and Lib Dems, the party would be on course for 351 seats at the next election – handing Labour a majority in Parliament, regardless of any pact between Farage and the Conservatives.
Best for Britain CEO Naomi Smith said the analysis shows Labour “need the support of other parties to make a return to government in 2024.”
Scenario A: No pacts – focaldata poll
- Conservatives win 284 seats, Labour win 283
- Labour pick up 35 seats across the North and Midlands lost in 2019
- PM Boris Johnson would lose his Uxbridge seat, while Cabinet Ministers Alok Sharma, Robert Buckland and Alister Jack would also lose their seats
Scenario B: Reform Party stands down for Conservatives – BFB analysis
- Conservatives win 319 seats, Labour win 251
- Labour pick up 26 seats across the North and Midlands lost in 2019, with the Conservatives retaining 17
- Cabinet Ministers Alok Sharma and Alister Jack would lose their seats, while Robert Buckland would retain his seat by a margin of less than 1%
Scenario C: Reform Party stands down for Conservatives and internationalist parties work together (including Labour) – BFB analysis
- Conservatives win 205 seats, Labour win 351
- Labour pick up 39 seats across the North and Midlands lost in 2019, almost entirely rebuilding the ‘Red Wall’
- PM Boris Johnson would lose his seat, along with Cabinet Ministers Dominic Raab, Robert Buckland, George Eustice, Grant Shapps, Simon Hart, Alok Sharma and Alister Jack
Commenting, Best for Britain CEO Naomi Smith said:
“Labour has done well to rebuild since last year’s election collapse, but as things stand they will need the support of other parties to make a return to government in 2024.
“This reliance is even clearer when you add Nigel Farage’s Reform UK party into the picture, previous iterations of which have stood aside for Conservative candidates over the last two elections in a show of nativist unity.
“If Keir Starmer wants a shot at No 10 in three years, the party must be open to working with the Greens and Lib Dems, particularly given the impending constituency boundary changes and SNP strength north of the border.”
Unite to Reform Director Peter Dunphy said:
"The recent lesson from the US is that populist nationalism can be defeated, even under a First Past the Post system - but only through unified action by the all progressives of the centre and left.
"In the UK exactly the same applies and this polling demonstrates that Labour cannot win by itself. But it also shows that by working together, progressives can defeat the Conservatives.
"It is time for all parties of the centre and left in the UK to find ways to work together and to make this possible Labour must support electoral reform. Nigel Farage will cause trouble for the Conservative Party but he will never act in a way that risks them losing power. For as long as Labour, Greens and Liberal Democrats are in conflict they will be outmanoeuvred."
Methodology behind Best for Britain analysis
The original MRP poll was conducted by Focaldata. Total sample size was 22,186 adults. Fieldwork was undertaken between 4th - 29th December 2020. Best for Britain's analysis can be downloaded here.
For the purpose of this analysis, Best for Britain have assumed that 88% of Labour, Liberal Democrat, Green and SNP votes would break to the leading opposition party in the event of a pact, with 7% being redistributed to the Conservatives and a further 5% would be unwilling to change their vote (in a ‘no pact’ scenario this does not apply). This is based on polling analysis of how votes break between parties undertaken by YouGov/Best for Britain prior to the 2019 general election. Best for Britain have also assumed that the Brexit Party vote in focaldata’s poll will be replicated by the Reform Party.
About Best for Britain and Unite to Reform
Unite to Reform is the independent organisation that, as Unite to Remain, facilitated an electoral pact between the Liberal Democrats, Green Party of England and Wales and Plaid Cymru in 2019. As Unite to Reform it continues to work for co-ordinated action between progressive parties, including Labour, and for adoption of Electoral Reform which would make such electoral pacts unnecessary.