Constituency by constituency research

Best for Britain commissioned constituency by constituency research known as Multilevel Regression and Post-stratification (MRP).  In 2017, the model used by LSE academics, correctly predicted the result in seats like Canterbury (Labour were offered at 33/1 to win the seat by the bookmakers) and Kensington (66/1) which were missed by all other polling methods.

Over the coming weeks we will share individual MPs’ data with them and publish more of this online.

Here are six constituency profiles.

  • Theresa May’s constituency of Maidenhead has the second largest amount of Remain voting Conservatives of any constituency in the country.
  • In Boris Johnson’s seat of Uxbridge & Ruislip South, he has a larger number of Tory Remain voters than his majority.
  • Hemsworth: In Shadow Front Bencher Jon Trickett’s seat of Hemsworth, the seat voted to Leave in 2016 by 68.1%. In 2017, the Labour Remain vote is larger than the majority of 10,174 votes. The 2017 Labour vote is made up of 43% Remain voters, 42% Leave voters, with a further 15% who did not vote in 2016.  We know from the BES data that around ¾ of those voters would support Remain in a referendum.
  • Wansbeck: In a strongly Leave seat (56.2%), 51% of the Labour vote from 2017 voted Remain in 2016, whilst 32% voted to Leave. The Remain vote is larger than Ian Lavery’s majority (Remain vote = 12,392, majority = 10435), which increased in 2017 from 2015.
  • Lewisham: 70% of the Labour vote in Lewisham East voted Remain in 2016, with 17% voting Leave. Lewisham East voted to Remain in 2016, with 64.6% of constituents casting a Remain ballot. In 2017, Labour managed to attract 76.6% of all Remain voters in the constituency.  
  • Wantage: in a close constituency, Labour still secured a large proportion of the Remain vote. 71% of their voters voted Remain, the other Remain support largely going to the Liberal Democrats. 
  • Runnymeade and Weybridge: more than 1 in 3 Conservative voters in the Chancellor's constituency voted Remain. 
  • We have also included Hammersmith & Fulham.

 

 


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