Eight-feet high electric fencing, thermal imaging cameras, police dogs, and even drones - we’re told - have been deployed to protect the globe’s top VIPs, staff and attendees from attacks by hungry, and ferocious, grizzly bears. But for Keir Starmer, there was another big beast it was essential to avoid provoking - for the sake of the UK’s car, steel and aerospace industries.

Reports this morning suggest the Prime Minister has avoided ending up as lunch, coming away with the deal, announced last month and now officially-inked, which will exempt UK aerospace goods from the 10% US tariff from the end of June, reduce tariffs on car exports from 27.5% to 10%, and put the UK’s steel tariff at 25%, vs the rest of the world on 50%, despite suggestions this would be reduced to zero.

After Trump awkwardly referred to the deal being with the “European Union”, the image of Starmer crouching to pick up the President’s documents fluttering to the ground, was almost too on the nose. While the US deal appears not to have slipped through Starmer’s fingers, he must have felt the harsh reality of his - and our - position, as junior partner in any such negotiation. 

Deals with such an unpredictable US administration means doubts will remain for the UK’s industries - no matter what is signed. And as the iron law of business goes, uncertainty is bad. It means decisions put on hold, investment paused, innovation reduced, growth forestalled. Just look at this morning’s comments from Community Union, warning that producers and customers “need an end to the current state of uncertainty to allow normal business to resume”. And official figures recently confirmed our exports to the US fell by the highest figure on record in April, which the Office for National Statistics, naturally, attributed to tariffs.

We may have an agreement, but it’s important to note that the Canadians did too. One signed, sealed and delivered by Trump in his first term. The terms of Starmer’s deal are still subject to the whims of the White House, and could turn on a nickel, never mind a dime. Ever the TV host, Trump aims to hold our attention. Asked about steel, he remarked “we’re going to let you have that information in a little while”; and pressed on future UK tariffs, he noted: “I like them - that’s their ultimate protection.”

But ministers can’t bet the UK’s economy on vague reassurances from a demonstrably untrustworthy political actor. The surer route to greater prosperity lies far closer to home. If we’re seeking growth, we must prioritise our efforts in Europe - as our polling shows voters in every UK constituency, yes, even Farage’s Clacton seat, want to see.

Independent economic research commissioned by Best for Britain has shown how deep regulatory alignment between the UK and EU - sharing and simplifying rules around food standards and safety checks on products - could spark up to 1.5% economic growth, even with tariffs applied by the US. And these estimates - of course - should be “considered a floor, and not a ceiling” for the economic growth potential offered by our largest and closest market. 

Last month’s UK-EU reset summit laid the groundwork for an improved trading relationship with our reliable partners in Europe, which, much more than any deal with Trump’s America, can support the UK’s businesses and workers, improve opportunities for our young people, and - crucially - reduce supermarket prices and cut energy costs for households amid the cost of living crisis. An economic boost not to be sniffed at. 

While negotiating access to the EU’s €150bn ‘SAFE’ defence fund for the UK’s homegrown defence industry will support jobs, boost businesses and keep us more secure. As the US steps back from its historic NATO alliance commitments, the UK, shoulder to shoulder with Europe, must address the threat from Putin we face together, as a continent. 

Bringing together all 27 EU member states to progress the possibility of the UK-EU reset won’t happen overnight, or with the same speed as talks with the US did. But with the potential prize on offer so much bigger for us, and the tangible shielding effect from Trump’s tariffs from closer UK-EU alignment also set to protect the GDP of the EU members, the reality of the situation is plain. Starmer and Ursula von der Leyen must seize the moment, deliver on these vital promises - in all our best interests.