Mark Carney’s Liberal Party has secured one of the greatest political comebacks in living memory. At the turn of the year, the Liberal Party was over 20 points behind the Conservatives in the polls. Fast forward four months and the resignation of Justin Trudeau, the appointment of Mark Carney and the shadow of Trump has propelled the Liberals to a Lazarus-like resurrection of popularity.
Why was there an election?
On January 6, Justin Trudeau resigned as Prime Minister of Canada after nine years in the role. Trudeau’s growing unpopularity within his own Liberal Party had reached feverpitch after his deputy prime minister Chrystia Freeland resigned, accusing Trudeau of not doing enough to address the threat of American tariffs. With his party suffering in the polls Trudeau quit, arguing that Canada “deserves a real choice in the next election (and) I cannot be the best option in that election”.
Trudeau’s resignation sparked a leadership contest within his party with the aforementioned Chystia Freeland and former Bank of England Governer Mark Carney emerging as the two frontrunners. On March 9, it was announced that Carney had indeed won the leadership contest with a staggering 87% of the vote amongst Liberal Party members, despite never before holding elected office.
Who is Mark Carney?
Carney may be familiar to many British readers, after he became the first non-British Governor of the Bank of England in 2013. Carney had steered Canada through the 2008 Financial Crisis and piloted the UK’s main financial institution through the uncertainty of Brexit. Many attribute his decisive action following the vote as vital in avoiding a more immediate economic fallout from the referendum. Leaving the Bank of England in March 2020, Carney assisted Canada’s government on its economic response to COVID-19. On becoming the Prime Minister of Canada, Carney became the first to occupy that office without previously holding an elected position.
How did Trump change the election?
Since his inauguration, concerns about the economic impact of Trump’s tariffs on Canada have been realised with the US President enacting a series of damaging import duties on all goods entering the country from Canada (except those covered by a North American trade deal known as USMCA). Alongside harmful economic policy, Trump has increased his rhetoric about absorbing Canada as the ‘51st State’ and often referred to the former Canadian Prime Minister as ‘Governor Trudeau’.
On the eve of the election, Trump posted on his Truth Social site that Canadians should elect Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre and join the United States; promising “ALL POSITIVES AND NO NEGATIVES” and an end to all tariffs. Aware of how toxic any apparent link between his campaign and Trump had proven during the previous couple of months, Poilievre was quick to distance himself from Trump’s comments. But it was too little too late. Not only has Poilievre lost the election ,but he has also lost his own parliamentary seat.
The Result
Whilst the Liberals came away with the most seats, they fell just short of the 172 seats required for a majority. The concentration of vote share between the Liberals and Conservatives meant that smaller parties, in particular the NDP, had a poor showing.
* 99.9% of the vote counted
Why did the Liberals win the election?
Carney’s campaign focused on his experience in calming markets and navigating economic turmoil. Seen by Canadian voters as a pragmatist and an experienced manager of global economies, Carney was able to contrast his style with that of Poilivre, who was prone to more populist rhetoric. Poilievre has spent much of his career campaigning against ‘woke ideology’, crime and immigration, for many Canadians his message chimed too closely with that of the nation's current bogey-man - Donald Trump. In sharp contrast, Carney unleashed cutting criticism on Trump from the outset of his candidacy.
During the campaign Carney was asked what lessons he had learnt from his time in charge of the Bank of England during Brexit in particular relation to tariffs. Carney, criticised for his warnings against the damage that Brexit would do to the UK economy during the 2016 Referendum, answered that “When you break off or rupture trade relations with major trading partners, you end up with slower growth, higher inflation, higher interest rates, volatility, lower currency (and) a weaker economy”. With the most recent OBR figures finding that Brexit has led to a 4% decrease in GDP, it is evident Carney’s concerns were well founded.
What next for Canada?
Shortly after his election victory became apparent, in a public address Carney berated President Trump adding that “We are over the shock of the American betrayal, we have to take care of each other”. However, in failing to win a majority, Carney will have to rely on the support from other parties such as the left-leaning NDP to deliver a thin majority in the House of Commons. Philippe Lagasse, a professor and constitutional expert at Carleton University in Ottawa, believes the requirement for a coalition will leave the government in a “very fragile” position.
Canada’s electoral system, like the UK's, runs on a first-past-the-post system which tends to give disproportionate electoral results. Despite winning 24 more seats than the Conservatives, the vote shares for the both parties were much closer, the winners bonus given by a first-past-the-post system should not lull Carney into a false sense of security. Additionally, unlike in the UK where voter fragmentation appears likely at the local elections on Thursday between Labour, the Conservatives, Liberal Democrats and Reform, this election was centred on the two main parties, with their combined vote shares reaching north of 84%. Comparatively, Labour and the Conservatives received a combined 57.4% of the vote in the 2024 UK General Election.
Considering the unique Trumpian circumstances of this election, it remains to be seen whether this consolidation of support for the mainstream parties is an aberration from the trend in Western politics or here to stay in Canada. As Trump reaches his 100th day in office, what is clear is that alongside a range of issues which tanked the popularity of his predecessor, Carney’s chief concern will be handling the erratic and expansionist American administration for the next 1362 days. Beyond America, Canada’s government must make progress on addressing the country’s housing crisis. In a poll just before the election, housing affordability and availability was seen as the second most important issue of the election, narrowly behind dealing with President Trump. If Carney wishes his government to carry on after the next election, it will likely be his record on housing, rather than an out-of-office President Trump, that will decide his fortunes.