Anthony Albanese secured a thumping electoral victory in Australia over the weekend, becoming the first Australian Prime Minister to secure a second term in decades. There are remarkable parallels between the Australian and Canadian elections: a dramatic turnaround in popularity for the government, the leader of the opposition losing his seat, and a rejection of MAGA-like populism.
So with a pro-Trump candidate winning the first round of the Romanian Presidential election, and Reform UK making gains in last week's local elections, what can Europe learn from Canada and Australia about pushing back the populist tide?
Why did Labor win the Australian Election?
In February, Anthony Albanese’s approval ratings had hit an all time low, and concerns about the cost of living and a general lack of awareness of his policy achievements threatened to derail the government. However, by early April Labor began to overtake the Liberal-National Coalition party in the polls, as Australia’s domestic issues became overshadowed by “the looming figure of Trump”.
In recent years, Australia's relationship with the US has gained greater strategic importance due to concerns over increasing militarism and espionage from China. Trump's isolationist tendencies - and apparent lack of awareness of AUKUS, the Australia-UK-US defence pact - made the US-Australia relationship a defining issue of the election. During the first television debate between Albanese and his main challenger, Peter Dutton, the first question asked by the audience related to Trump.
In particular the success of both Albanese and Carney was driven, in part, by their willingness to stand up to Trump rather than pander to his erratic nature. The failures of Poilievre and Dutton were confounded not just by their mimicking of Trump, but by the strong contrast from MAGA-like politics that Albanese and Carney embodied with their own statesmanship and compassion.
Was this a reaction against populism?
Dutton, leader of the Liberal Party, had previously emulated Trump's rhetoric, attacking school curriculum for making students ashamed of being Australian and pushing a ‘woke agenda’. He praised Trump as "shrewd" and even promoted a minister for government efficiency to his shadow cabinet.
These policies proved to be too much for the Australian public who began to call the leader of the opposition “Temu Trump”, referencing the cheap Chinese e-commerce site. In one of the defining moments of the campaign, Liberal Senator Jacinta Price promised that her party would “Make Australia Great Again”, with even Dutton squirming at the suggestion. With more Australians viewing Trump as the greatest threat to world peace - over Xi Jinping or Vladimir Putin - it seems likely that adopting a similarly populist campaign undermined support for Dutton and his party.
Like Canadian Conservative leader Pierre Poilievre last weekend, Dutton also lost his own parliamentary seat - and, adding insult to injury, Trump praised the ‘very friendly’ Albanese and claimed to have ‘no idea’ who Dutton was.
The Result
The Labor Party won a landslide victory, increasing their vote share and the size of their majority in parliament, well over the 76 seats required.
136/150 seats confirmed (79.53% of votes counted) - 6 May 2025
But what's the story in Europe?
While progressives celebrated the rejection of Trump-style populism in the Australian and Canadian elections, the polls told a different story in Europe. Over the weekend, the far-right Romanian George Simion won the first round of the country's presidential election just months after the initial vote was cancelled amid evidence of Russian interference. An ultra-nationalist who has previously labelled himself “Trump’s natural ally”, Simion will face off against the centrist Bucharest Mayor Nicusor Dan in a second round runoff on 18 May.
The scale of Simion’s first round win, gaining 41% of the ballots cast, has led to the resignation of the current Prime Minister Marcel Ciolacu, whose party came in third. The country's government is now preparing for a drastic turn away from Brussels and towards Moscow - Simion has been an outspoken critic of the EU; called for the end of Romanian support for Ukraine; and is banned from both Moldova and Ukraine after suggesting that Romania should return to its 1940 borders, which include land which now belongs to the aforementioned nations.
Is Trump-style politics coming to the UK?
During last week's local elections in England, Reform UK gained 677 councillors, overall control of ten councils, a new MP and two mayoralties. The party has wasted no time in bringing MAGA-imitation policies to the UK - in the last few days, we have seen:
- Andrea Jenkyns promise to fire imaginary DEI officers from Lincolnshire County Council.
- Nigel Farage threaten to end working from home (despite Reform itself advertising remote job roles) and introduce a Musk-like efficiency drive within Reform-held councils - both moves which backfired dramatically on Peter Dutton in Australia.
- Reform Chairman Zia Yusuf announce a ban on the flying of Ukraine flags across town halls in Reform-controlled councils.
It remains to be seen how the British public will react to these Trump-style moves. The US President's treatment of Ukraine and appeasement of Putin is viewed dimly across the political spectrum, and 80% of Brits judge Trump unfavourably. Becoming a Trump tribute act ended in electoral defeat for Peter Dutton in Australia and Pierre Poilievre in Canada. Let us hope that Reform's 'war on woke' results in the same rejection from the British public when the country next returns to the polls - and that, in the meantime, our Labour government isn't tempted to lurch rightwards to appease the populists.
Albanese and Carney offer an important lesson in the reward of standing up for one's values and showing strength towards a politician like Trump. It is undeniable that Starmer is in a uniquely challenging position when it comes to appeasing Trump; with an economy made more vulnerable by Brexit and near existential concerns for European security if the US abandons Ukraine. However, Starmer can show strength in a different way. By improving trade with the EU and improving relations with our European allies, the Prime Minister can offer an alternative worldview to that offered by Reform. A politics built on cooperation rather than isolationism, that delivers the economic growth vital for defeating populism.