Romania has elected the Mayor of Bucharest, Nicusor Dan, as its next President. The result marks a surprising turnaround from the results of the initial ballot and brings to an end months of political volatility in the nation after the initial presidential election result was annulled. The victory for Dan is a victory for pro-EU sentiment in the country, whilst the election handed defeat to George Simion, a former football ‘ultra’ critical of Ukraine and flattering to Trump.
Why was last year's Romanian election annulled?
As the result was announced late on Sunday night, a rare sense of clarity befell the Romanian political system. For months the country has been in political turmoil after the initial presidential election result held in December was annulled due to suspected Russian interference. For the following five months the country has been dogged by protest by those who felt that the annulment amounted to a betrayal of democracy, including JD Vance in his now infamous Berlin address.
What was the result of the Romanian election?
Once the election had been rearranged, a second populist anti-EU firebrand emerged in the form of George Simion, who has built a career based on Euroscepticism, been critical of further funding of Ukraine, and claimed that his political movement is “perfectly aligned ideologically with the MAGA movement”.
The first round of the election saw Simion win 41% of the vote, compared to just 21% for Dan, as the populist rode a wave of dissatisfaction over the annulment of the earlier election. But in a stunning turnaround, a much higher turnout over the weekend propelled the liberal, anti-corruption, and pro-EU candidate Nicusor Dan to victory.
Turnout, turnout, turnout
Turnout for the second round of the Presidential election shot up from 53% to 65%, with many young people and Romanian expats rushing to support the more liberal candidate. Engaging young voters has proven to be an important tool for fighting the far-right across Europe, with Die Linke in Germany utilising an effective strategy to boost turnout in their recent federal election.
Collaboration between progressive movements also proved critical, with the disparity in vote share for Dan between the first and second round partially explained by the coalescing of left-wing support behind one figure. The result echoes last year's French election, where Emmanuel Macron’s Ensemble and the New Popular Front agreed to a non-competition pact to mitigate the rise of Le Pen’s National Rally; and the result in Germany, where the longstanding tradition of non-engagement with far-right parties operates as a ‘firewall’, and helped to prevent the AfD from entering into a coalition government.
Populism persists in Portugal and Poland
Despite the positive result in Romania, right-wing populist parties are continuing to gain influence across Europe.On Sunday, elections in Portugal and Poland saw increased support for right-wing populist groups. In particular, the Portuguese election saw the far-right party Chega party achieve their greatest election result a mere six years after their formation. The nascent party almost replaced the Socialist Party in second place in an election which saw the governing centre-right Democratic Alliance win but fail to secure a majority.
Like Romania, Portuguese politics has been marked by volatility in recent years with three elections held in the country since 2022. The rise of Chega, who won just 7.2% in 2022, mirrors the rise of fellow populists around Europe, from the National Rally in France, to the AfD in Germany, and Vox in Spain.
Meanwhile, in Poland’s first-round presidential elections the front-runner and liberal Mayor of Warsaw, Rafal Trzaskowski, topped the ballot. However, the result has thrown serious doubt over Trzaskowski’s ability to win the upcoming run-off against the far-right nationalist historian Karol Nawrocki. Nawrocki finished within just two percentage points of the Warsaw Mayor (31.4% vs 29.5%), much closer than earlier polling had suggested. More worrying still, collectively far-right candidates performed well and collectively won just over 51% of the vote.
The success of the far-right during the first round of the presidential election will worry Donald Tusk, the Polish Prime Minister, who is hoping that Tzaskowski’s victory will push through his stymied agenda.
Why do the results in Romania and Portugal matter?
Recent elections have shown that whilst misinformation and populism are on the rise across the continent, there remain green shoots of hope for democracy. Through engaging voters, boosting turnout amongst young people, and fostering progressive solidarity there are methods to help defeat right-wing populism.
Following in the footsteps of Albania’s election, the result of the Romanian election is yet another victory for greater European integration and a defeat for Russian interference and anti-EU sentiment. After the election of pro-Kremlin politicians in Belarus and Georgia, the rejection of Russian interference by the Romanian public is an important indicator of the power of the vote whilst reminding us to never take our current democratic standards for granted in an ever more volatile world of misinformation and nationalism.