With the problems created by Brexit continuing to feature strongly in the news, Best for Britain has taken the pulse of the nation on the UK’s relationship with Europe, in a first of its kind poll under the new constituency boundaries that come into force at the next Election. We asked voters what they think about our relationship with the EU, whether they think we should be aligned with the EU on standards and regulations, what they think about worker visas, and whether the Government should back a reciprocal youth mobility scheme.

We commissioned a Focaldata poll of more than 10,000 people and MRP analysis using the new UK Parliamentary constituency boundaries that will be used for the next general election. These are the first poll results to be published using these new boundaries at this scale. 

Almost two-thirds say Brexit created more problems than it solved

Almost two-thirds now say that Brexit has created more problems than it has solved with 63% of GB adults saying Brexit has created more problems than it has solved, compared to just 21% who say it has solved more problems than it created. That is the largest number of people agreeing with that statement that we have recorded - when we asked a similar question in December 2021 we found 57% thought Brexit had created more problems, and in September 2021 it was 53%.

Respondents were asked to say whether they thought Brexit had created more problems than it had solved, or whether it had solved more problems than it had created.

Majority of voters want a closer relationship with EU

We asked Brits if they thought the Government should negotiate a closer or more distant relationship with the EU, or keep things as they are. The most popular option in every single seat in Great Britain is to negotiate a closer relationship.

A majority - 53% - of all voters want the UK Government to seek a closer relationship with the EU, compared to just 14% who want a more distant relationship. Respondents were asked whether they would prefer the UK to seek a closer relationship with the EU, a more distant relationship or for there to be no change to the current relationship.

We commissioned MRP analysis to find out how responses break down in each UK Parliamentary constituency and, crucially, we have done this analysis using the new constituency boundaries that will come into force later in 2023.

Below is a heat map showing the strength of support for the answer “The UK Government should seek a closer relationship with the EU” in each of the constituencies under the new boundaries.

When we dive into the new constituencies, from north to south, east to west, voters want to deepen ties. In Bristol Central BC, 70% to 10% want a closer rather than more distant relationship with the EU, and even in the constituency with the largest ‘leave’ vote (some 75%) in 2016 , Boston & Skegness, the split is 40% to 19% in favour of closer ties.

The new-boundary constituencies most in favour of closer ties

The new-boundary constituencies least in favour of closer ties

In no (new) constituency do more than a fifth of voters seek a more distant relationship. In The Cities of London and Westminster BC constituency, 54% of electors want a closer relationship, 20% are happy with the status quo, and 20% prefer a more distant relationship, the latter being the highest in the country of any seat.

Even in the top five seats with the highest number of leave votes in the 2016 referendum, people want a closer relationship with the EU.

In totemic Red Wall/Leave seats like Stoke-on-Trent North, Ashfield, Bolton North East and others, the most popular option is for a closer relationship with the EU.

The recent National Conservative Conference has brought less familiar names in parliament to the fore, including Danny Kruger and Miriam Cates. In their constituencies, Melksham & Devizes and Pensitone & Stocksbridge, 52% to 13% and 49% to 16% support closer over more distant respectively.

Turning to other prominent Brexiters, they too now represent voters with a preference for closer relations with Europe.

In Keir Starmer’s Holborn & St Pancras constituency 58% to 16% want a closer relationship with the EU.

A majority of Britons want the UK to be aligned with EU standards and regulations

We also polled a slightly more technical question of whether the UK should be aligned with, or diverge from, EU standards and regulations, because at least 600 laws pertaining to such issues are due to be scrapped by the end of the year in accordance with the Government’s Retained EU Law Bill.

A majority - 52% - of all voters want the UK to be aligned with EU standards and regulations, with just 35% saying we should diverge.

Below is a heat map showing the strength of support for the answer “The UK should be aligned with EU standards and regulations” in each of the constituencies under the new boundaries.

In 626 new constituencies in GB, the most popular choice among voters is to align with Europe on standards and regulations. Just six seats chose ‘diverge’ as their most popular option, two in Wales and four on the east coast of England.

By contrast, Brighton Pavilion BC prefers to align 76% to 7% closely followed by several Scottish constituencies.

In every nation and region in Great Britain, there is a preference for alignment over divergence, with Scotland being most in favour (61% to 25%) and the East of England region the least (47% to 39%).

The only age group among who ‘diverge’ is the most popular option is the over 65 year olds, with all other cohorts supporting alignment over divergence.

As with the question about a closer relationship, the constituents of prominent Brexiters, and in totemically Red Wall seats, also chose alignment as their preferred option.

In the totemic Red Wall/Leave seats like Stoke-on-Trent North, Ashfield, Bolton North East and others, the most popular option is for regulatory alignment with the EU.

For both this question and the previous one, when we exclude the 'don’t know' responses, support for a closer relationship and alignment is above 50%.

More than half of Britons want the UK to welcome more overseas workers

When asked to consider the UK's visa policies, more than half of all voters said the UK should issue more visas to allow foreign workers to come to the UK - 19% wanted to see morevisas generally and 32% said they wanted to see more visas issued but only in sectors with labour shortages. Only 23% wanted to actively see fewer visas issued.

Voters clearly want reciprocal Youth Mobility Scheme with EU

Further exploring voters' views on immigration, we asked how they would feel about the UK negotiating a reciprocal 'Youth Mobility Scheme' with the EU which would allow any EU citizen aged under 30 to stay in the UK for up to five years in return for the EU granting the same for UK citizens aged under 30.

A huge majority of all voters want to see such a scheme negotiated.

The poll

Poll of 10,102 GB adults by Focaldata commissioned by Best for Britain Limited conducted between 20 April 2023 and 9 May 2023.

Data tables for the poll are available here.

Data tables for the MRP analysis are here:

• Closer or more distant relationship with EU
• Align or diverge with EU standards and regulations

What is MRP?

Multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) is a statistical technique for estimating public opinion in small geographic areas or sub-groups using national opinion surveys. The MRP technique has two main elements. The first is to use a survey to build a multi-level regression model that predicts opinion (or any quantity of interest) from certain variables, normally demographics. The second is to weight (post-stratify) your results by the relevant population frequency, to get population level (or constituency level) estimates. At the end of this process, you yield more accurate, more granular (thus more actionable) estimates of public opinion than traditional polling.

New constituency boundaries

The UK’s boundary commissions have undertaken a review of UK Parliamentary constituencies and have published their proposed changes. The new boundaries are set to be adopted automatically in Summer 2023 and to be used at the next UK General Election.

Published revised new boundaries from each of the boundary commissions can be found below: 

Boundary Commission for England

Boundary Commission for Scotland

Boundary Commission for Wales

Our poll included respondents from GB only, so Northern Ireland has not been mapped.