May 19, 2019 12:11 AM

POLL: Largest poll so far shows how each region is voting ahead of Thursday's Euro elections

Best for Britain and HOPE not hate have released the largest poll to date on how the public are intending to vote in Thursday’s European elections. 
 
The 9,260 sample poll by YouGov and Datapraxis for Best for Britain and HOPE not hate was conducted between 8th-17th May. It contains substantial samples in every GB European election region.

Key findings include; 

  • Liberal Democrats are now 2 pts ahead of Labour in national vote share (LD 17%, Lab 15%), with the Greens only 4% behind Labour.
  • 22% of Labour's 2017 voters are planning to vote Lib Dem at the European elections and 17% Green. Where Labour are losing their vote, over three votes are going to remain parties for every vote that goes to a Brexit party.
  • The Conservative party are languishing at 9% and in 5th place nationally, polling no higher than 12% in any one region 

The poll finds the national European election voting intention as below. Regional breakdowns can be found in the notes to editors.
 

  National vote share (%)
Brexit Party
Lib Dem
Lab
Green
Con
Change UK
SNP
UKIP
Other
Plaid Cymru
34
17
15
11
9
4
3
3
3
1


The poll shows the Labour party do not top the poll anywhere in the country. In four of nine English regions, the party is in third place or lower according to these results, including third place in London and 5th place in the South East. The results show many voters are jumping ship to vote for parties unambiguously backing our continued membership of the EU.

The pro-European Lib Dems look on course to top the poll in the London region, with the Brexit Party in second and Labour in third. They are also on course to come second and beat Labour in the South West, South East and East of England. The Green Party are also performing well, coming third in the South West, West Midlands and Scotland.
 
The results show the Conservative party on course for a potential electoral disaster, and could be at risk of losing most of the 19 MEPs they returned in the 2014 vote. They are in 5th place overall and poll no higher than third in any region in the country. 

Best for Britain has launched a tool to coincide with the release of the poll to help people understand how turnout will affect vote share. BestforBritain.org/Vote shows people the current picture in their region based on this poll, and will allow voters to see how much additional turnout could be required in each region to take votes away from hard-Brexit parties (Brexit Party, Conservatives and UKIP).

Even a small surge in turnout could have a significant impact. For example, in South East, South West, and North West England, parties opposed to a hard Brexit could net an additional 3 seats with only 5-6% increase in pro-European voter turnout according to Best for Britain’s d’Hondt analysis based on the poll results.
 
Commenting, interim CEO of Best for Britain Naomi Smith said:

“Other polls in this election, especially those being used by tactical voting sites, have been relatively small at regional level. Our poll is the largest yet, and shows that there's still everything to play for in these European elections.
 
"It's fundamentally important that as many people as possible get out and vote, especially those who often get forgotten by politicians - young people, renters and minority voices. No matter their frustrations with politics, staying at home on polling day is never the answer. Our poll gives people the evidence on which to make their decision before going to the polling station"
 
Also commenting, Nick Lowles, CEO of HOPE not hate, said: 

“These results are incredibly alarming. They envision a populist right party storming to victory in these elections. If that happens as this poll suggests, it will be a big boost for the forces of division in this country. That's why it is so important that progressives get out and vote on Thursday.

“Remember that the Brexit Party’s leadership has been decimated by resignations over racism, Islamophobia and antisemitism. If these results are borne out, it will be a dark day. The most frustrating thing is that it didn’t have to be this way. The government has failed for more than two years to even try and bring the country together. 

“To the very last Theresa May is making no effort to forge consensus in the country. At the same time, Labour’s attempt to triangulate their way out of this Brexit crisis has clearly failed. Leave voters don’t support Labour’s soft brexit compromise, and Remain voters are livid at being abandoned. 

“Some have warned that a confirmatory referendum could deepen divisions, but this poll makes it clear that continuing to pretend this question has been resolved is what’s really pulling the country apart.”


More on the data

All figures, unless otherwise stated, are from YouGov Plc.  Total sample size was 9,260 adults. Fieldwork was undertaken between 8th - 17th May 2019. The survey was carried out online. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all GB adults (aged 18+). YouGov is a member of the British Polling Council.

Observer story is here

National vote share and vote share by region are below and can also be seen at bestforbritain.org/vote.

North East Vote share (%)   North West Vote share (%)
Brexit Party 35   Brexit Party 32
Lab 26   Lab 22
Lib Dem 12   Lib Dem 17
Con 9   Con 9
Green 6   Green 9
Change UK 5   UKIP 3
UKIP 4   Change UK 3
Other 3   Other 3
Weighted Sample 437   Weighted Sample 1030
         
Yorkshire and the Humber Vote share (%)   East Midlands Vote share (%)
Brexit Party 33   Brexit Party 37
Lab 18   Lab 16
Lib Dem 16   Lib Dem 15
Green 13   Con 12
Con 8   Green 10
Other 5   Change UK 4
Change UK 4   UKIP 3
UKIP 3   Other 3
Weighted Sample 792   Weighted Sample 787
         
West Midlands Vote share (%)   East of England Vote share (%)
Brexit Party 40   Brexit Party 40
Lab 15   Lib Dem 17
Green 14   Lab 15
Lib Dem 13   Green 10
Con 10   Con 9
Change UK 4   Change UK 4
UKIP 2   UKIP 3
Other 2   Other 2
Weighted Sample 741   Weighted Sample 833
         
London Vote share (%)   South East Vote share (%)
Lib Dem 24   Brexit Party 37
Brexit Party 21   Lib Dem 21
Lab 19   Con 11
Green 14   Green 11
Con 10   Lab 10
Change UK 6   Change UK 5
Other 5   UKIP 3
UKIP 2   Other 2
Weighted Sample 1111   Weighted Sample 1308
         
South West Vote share (%)   Wales Vote share (%)
Brexit Party 42   Brexit Party 35
Lib Dem 20   Plaid Cymru 19
Green 12   Lab 15
Con 9   Lib Dem 9
Lab 8   Green 7
Change UK 4   Con 5
UKIP 3   UKIP 5
Other 2   Change UK 3
Weighted Sample 952   Other 2
      Weighted Sample 472
         
Scotland Vote share (%)      
SNP 38      
Brexit Party 20      
Green 11      
Con 10      
Lab 10      
Lib Dem 7      
UKIP 2      
Change UK 2      
Other 1      
Weighted Sample 796

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