• Under Sunak, Tories set for extinction level event as mega-polling analysis puts them on 98 seats
• Reform UK surge across the country, coming second in 7 seats
• The Prime Minister and Chancellor’s seats at risk, with both leading by less than 2.5%
• Many in Cabinet predicted to lose seats including Cleverly, Mordaunt and Shapps
• Conservatives set for wipeout in Wales and Scotland - reduced to a party of England only
• Reform UK standing aside would increase Conservative seat haul by more than 50%

This new megapoll of over 15,029 respondents and MRP analysis was carried out by Survation on behalf of Best for Britain and went into the field shortly after the Chancellor’s Budget. The poll and MRP constituency-level analysis shows that under Rishi Sunak, the Conservatives are headed for electoral oblivion, on track to return just 98 MPs at the next election.

To assess the effect of Reform UK, we looked at the impact of the party agreeing to ‘stand aside’ for the Conservatives across the UK. Survation asked those currently planning to vote Reform UK who they would vote for if the party didn’t stand a candidate in their area. In this scenario the Conservatives would win 150 seats - a more than 50% increase in their seat haul.

The poll and analysis also suggest that the Conservatives are set to regain four seats lost in recent by-elections. These include Chesham and Amersham, where the Lib Dems now slip to third place behind Labour, Glastonbury and Somerton, Honiton and Sidmouth and Tamworth. We also show the emergence of several new three-way marginals. Both these losses and the close ties highlight the need to provide voters with accurate guidance on how to vote locally, to effect change nationally. You can sign up for early alerts at our tactical voting site here.

THE POLLING

The graph below shows that the Labour Party has a 19 point lead over Sunak’s Conservatives (45% to 26%). The Liberal Democrats take 10% of the national vote share and Reform UK have 9%.

Our MRP forecast shows that, if the election were held tomorrow, Sunak’s Conservatives would lose 250 MPs across the country and the Labour Party would win with 468 seats. This would be the worst ever result for the Conservatives at a General Election.

If these results were repeated on polling day, it would give Labour an overall majority of 142. The Liberal Democrats would win in 22 seats. The Scottish National Party are on track to hold 41 of their seats in Scotland and Plaid Cymru would retain two in Wales. The Conservatives would fail to win a single seat outside of England.

REFORM UK

The Labour Party have had a significant lead across all three of Best for Britain’s most recent MRP publications in May 2022; December 2022; May 2023 - but none as dismal as this for Sunak’s party. This latest downturn for the Conservatives can be almost entirely attributed to the impact of Reform UK.

In the majority of seats across the country, Reform UK have increased their vote share significantly compared to the last MRP fielded by Survation in December 2023. Mostly this comes at the expense of the Conservatives,  so much so that Reform UK have become the second largest party in seven seats.

Although they command 8.5% of the national vote share,  in 207 seats their vote share is above 10%, and in 47 seats their vote share is over 15%. With this level of support, if they stand down their candidates as UKIP did in 2017, and the Brexit Party (Reform UK’s previous name), did in 2019, Reform UK could significantly boost the Conservative seat haul.

THE PORTILLO MOMENT(S)

The phrase ‘Portillo Moment’ was coined at the 1997 General Election when Conservative cabinet minister Michael Portillo unexpectedly lost his seat. Our results suggest we could be on for a whole new generation of “were you still awake for…?” moments. 

The Cabinet currently includes 30 elected MPs, of which one is stepping down at the next election (Alistair Jack, Dumfries and Galloway) and one is being made seat-less as a result of boundary changes (Richard Holden, North West Durham). 

Of the remaining 28 cabinet members, only 13 of them would be re-elected should they decide to stand again in the seat that most closely resembles their current one. 

The extent of the damage to the Conservative Party doesn’t stop there either. Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s seat of Richmond and Northallerton becomes a hyper-marginal, with the Labour Party just 2.4% behind him. The same is true in Chancellor Jeremy Hunt’s new seat of Godalming and Ash in which the Liberal Democrats trail by just 1%.

A significant number of the cabinet are also on track to lose their seats including Leader of the House, Penny Mordaunt; Home Secretary, James Cleverly; and Defence Secretary Grant Shapps.

The true extent of the damage to the cabinet can be seen by looking at the remaining Cabinet Ministers: only four are not considered ‘marginal’ (where there’s less than 5% of the vote between the two leading parties) - meaning that many Cabinet Members predicted to retain their seats are still in a precarious electoral position.

METHODOLOGY

The poll of 15,029 adults and MRP analysis by Survation on behalf of Best for Britain was conducted between 8th March and 22nd  March 2024. 

What is MRP? 

Multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) is a way of producing estimates of opinion and attitudes for small defined geographic areas. It works by combining information from large national samples (for example tens of thousands of respondents) with ONS and census data. Full explanation is available here.

DATA TABLES AND APPENDICES:

• Standard data tables for the polling by Survation

• Data tables for the polling by Survation, accounting for Reform UK standing aside

• Appendix A: FAQs prepared by Survation

• Appendix B: FAQs about when the next general election will be