Herbert Kickl, the leader of the Freedom Party (FPÖ), has delivered another stark reminder to the growing prowess of the far-right electoral machine in Europe, leading his party to victory, at least in terms of popular vote, in the Austrian Election. A month after AfD (Alternative for Germany) claimed a dramatic and yet expected victory in the eastern state of Thuringia, Kickl and his party became, for the first time, the largest party in Austria’s parliament. The European Populist Right has proved remarkably successful at gaining rapid electoral success and political legitimacy, offering lessons for Reform UK and warnings for Labour and the Conservatives.
The victory for the FPÖ, is another watershed moment in a decade which has become defined by the growth of far-right politics. From Orban’s Fidesz Party in Central Europe to the Sweden Democrats in Scandinavia and the nouveau populist movements which have swept to power and prominence across the Mediterranean such as Meloni’s Brothers of Italy & Le Pen’s National Rally, the tide of far-right populism has swamped Europe and the European Union’s parliament, where Patriots for Europe are now the third-largest party coalition.
Yet the remarkable thing about the nouveau far-right is their relative obscurity 20 years ago and more importantly the rise of their legitimacy since. Take the National Rally in France, in 2007 the party was in disarray, the Holocaust denying vitriolic rhetoric of Jean-Marie Le Pen had run thin with the electorate, the party spluttered to 4.3% of the vote making it 21 years since the party had held more than one seat in the National Assembly. Indeed, it was only under the new stewardship of his daughter Marine Le Pen in 2022, a full 11 years after her ascension to President of the Party, that National Rally were able to win more than 8 seats in the National Assembly. Even when Le Pen Jr had reached the Presidential run-off in 2017, her party had flattered to deceive.
In 2024, Le Pen is flying high, despite a left-wing coalition making deals of non-opposition in the recent National Assembly Election, her party won 33.21% of First-Round votes, 5% more than eventual election winners Nouveau Front Populaire. Even more pleasingly for Le Pen, the fall-out from Macron’s indecision over appointing Michel Barnier as Prime Minister and the inevitable stagnation of political action of a divided parliament, will do little to convince the French public that the status quo is working. Good news for Le Pen’s 2027 Presidential hopes.
This image of rapid far-right popularity growth and political legitimisation is replicated across Europe. The aforementioned AfD were only founded in 2013, the Sweden Democrats only won their first seats in parliament in 2010 and now act as the kingmakers of Swedish politics in a confidence and supply deal as the second-largest party. Gert Wilders was much of a laughing stock in Dutch politics, winning only 6% of the vote in 2006, before leading a coalition following a dominant electoral display last year.
In Britain, we have our own Gert Wilders in Nigel Farage, our own newly formed “party”/limited liability company in Reform UK and in the 2024 General Election their first taste of electoral blood on a national scale. Naivety surrounding Reform UK would be misplaced, a lesson from our European counterparts is that the rise of these new populist right parties can happen quickly boosted by the political adrenaline of that first step into the halls of power, that first taste of legitimacy.
Reform may have only won 5 seats, yet their 14.3% vote share should strike fear into both Labour and Conservative strategists. A historically successful Liberal Democrat result received around 600,000 fewer votes than the party. The presence of Reform candidates in the House of Commons, especially the soundbite friendly Farage will undoubtedly raise the media profile of the party, and crucially their appearance of political legitimacy. Six years on, the smell of UKIP taboo is less pungent on Reform, it will be even lighter come 2029. What the results across Europe illustrate over the last decade is that these far-right parties thrive off the paradoxical position of positioning themselves as outside the establishment whilst also prospering off of the legitimacy a place at the table of the establishment allows them.
As Labour and the Conservatives kick chunks out of each other over the next five years they must both be careful to underestimate the spectre of Farage with pint and cigarette in hand. The Conservative leadership campaign has appeared to be a competition to see who can appear to be more right-wing as the party tries to out manoeuvre Reform UK. Similarly, Starmer has spent much of his first 100-days in power highlighting the importance of his own mission to end illegal migration and for want of a better term – stop the boats.
However, both Labour and Conservatives miss what makes these new far-right populist parties popular. Beyond their rhetoric and their policies, their popularity comes from not being established and not being the Conservatives, the Liberal Democrats or Labour. Their popularity also comes from the freedom of responsibility in the eyes of the public for the 2008 Financial Crash which has rewritten the political, social, and economic rulebook across Europe. No matter how much the next Conservative leader moves towards the right they will find it impossible to escape the shackles of the past and their association with the very kind of politics Reform voters are voting against.
The rising tide of Euroscepticism across Europe, driven by this particular brand of right-wing nativist populism that seeks to give the simplest answers to the most complex of questions, is a further reason for the Labour Party to pursue closer and stronger relationships with Europe. Populim’s popularity is bred from division, the distraction of individuals away from their communities and towards a state of paranoia and fear, the antidote for such an approach is a closer relationship with Europe. Whether the United Kingdom remains outside of the European Union or ever rejoins it, a strong and prosperous EU is beneficial for British trade, culture and security.
Britain’s Government should focus on building bridges where Farage wishes to burn them down. Britain may have voted for isolationism in 2016, however a more isolationist Europe , a fractured Europe, perhaps created by a future Swexit or Frexit, is one that is vulnerable to the military aggressions from Russia and the economic hegemony of the bigger global players of the USA and China. Britain must meet the rise of the right-wing in Europe with support for her political allies, not out of pure altruism but for realpolitik and the balance of geo-political power between Europe and the rest of the world.
With the introduction of a more professional party structure, the installation of local parties and grassroots movements, Mr Farage will look to Austria, Germany, and Europe as a template for what the future may hold for him and his party. Labour and the Conservatives must look to Europe and learn from the mistakes of Europe’s now undermined political establishment.