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MRP Analysis: Improving trade access with the EU if it required the UK to follow some EU rules

We asked almost 15,000 people whether they would support or oppose improving trade access with the EU if it required in return that the UK would follow some specific EU rules, standards, and regulations on goods and services and YouGov used MRP to model constituency-level results.

This question was asked alongside another asking whether people would support or oppose accepting an extreme version of a trade-off of the UK being required to follow all of the EU's rules. We are therefore able to compare these two sets of results to see how voters have nuanced views about what trade-offs may be more or less acceptable in trade negotiations.

631 out of 632 GB constituencies would, overall, support the UK accepting some EU rules in return for improved trade with the EU, only Clacton - Nigel Farage's constituency - would oppose.

No constituency would choose either 'tend to oppose' or 'strongly oppose' as its first choice, instead 628 would choose 'tend to support' in first place and the remaining four would opt for 'strongly support'. Strongly support was the most frequent second placed response and only 46 constituencies would put either of the oppose options in second place.

The results of the poll that underlies the MRP analysis shows clearly that 54% of people in Great Britain support the UK accepting some specific EU rules in return for improved trade access with the EU compared with just 29% who oppose it.

Con-Lab Switchers

Voters who switched to Labour at the 2024 UK General Election but who had previously voted Conservative were a key factor in delivering the landslide result for the Labour Party, and we wanted to understand where they stand on UK-EU co-operation.

2024 Labour voters as a whole group support accepting some specific EU rules far more (76%) than the GB population generally (54%), and those who switched from Conservative to Labour in 2024 as a subset of Labour voters also support it at roughly the same proportion (55%) as the general population, though 1 point ahead. 30% of these Con-Lab switchers oppose it, which again is roughly the same as the GB population as a whole (29%).

Constituencies in focus

Conservative Leader, Kemi Badenoch's constituency of North West Essex is predicted by the MRP to very clearly support the UK accepting some EU rules in return for improved trade access, an outright majority (52% of constituents) would be in support with those who would oppose 21 points behind.

Even in Reform UK's Boston and Skegness where the Leave campaign recorded its highest vote share in 2016, support for accepting some EU rules would outweigh opposition by six points.

In Wales' Llanelli constituency, held by Labour in 2024 despite a strong challenge by Reform UK who came a close second, an outright majority of constituents (51%) are predicted to favour accepting some EU rules in return for better trade access and just 30% of Llanelli constituents would oppose it.

Stirling and Strathallan in Scotland was a narrow Labour gain from the SNP in 2024 and almost two thirds of constituents (63%) are predicted by the MRP to support the UK accepting some EU rules, with just 19% who would oppose it.

Labour won many constituencies in the north of England in 2024, cementing the party's majority in Parliament, including Burnley, Doncaster East and Spen Valley. All three of these constituencies would support the UK taking some EU rules in return for better trade with 50% of constituents in Burnley and Spen Valley predicted to support and 47%, almost half, in Doncaster East. In all three, opposition is predicted to be at around 30-33%, just a third of constituents.

The Data

Polling and MRP commissioned by Best for Britain. All figures, unless otherwise stated, are from YouGov Plc. Total sample size was 14,858 adults. Fieldwork was undertaken between 16th - 28th December 2024. The survey was carried out online. The figures have been weighted and are representative of all GB adults (aged 18+). 

The question that received MRP analysis was: Would you support or oppose the UK improving trade access with the EU if it required the UK to follow some specific EU rules, standards, and regulations on goods and services?

Possible responses were: Strongly support; Tend to support; Tend to oppose; Strongly oppose; Don't know