Best for Britain have today (7 December) released our final round of MRP data before the general election, showing the Conservative Party’s majority has halved in the space of a fortnight. It would now take as little as 40,704 tactical votes across just 36 marginal seats to prevent a Conservative majority.
The seat-by-seat analysis of 28,272 British adults was carried out between 4 November and 5 December by Focaldata for Best for Britain.
Without tactical voting, Labour, Lib Dems, SNP, Greens and Plaid Cymru would hold a combined 286 seats. This scenario would see the Conservative Party win 345 seats and a majority in Parliament.
However, while the data currently predicts a majority for Boris Johnson’s party, the Conservatives will be worried to see the size of that majority has been cut in half in the space of a fortnight (from Best for Britain’s November MRP, which predicted the Conservatives could win up to 366 seats).
Vist GetVoting.org to get your final tactical voting recommendation.
Election day is Thursday 12th December.
Polling stations will be open 7am to 10pm.
What does this all mean for voters?
Factoring in the possibility of a supply and confidence arrangement with the Democratic Unionist Party, pro-EU parties need to take just 36 seats that are currently predicted to be won by the Conservatives to prevent a Johnson majority,
Best for Britain have therefore identified the 36 seats where the chances of pro-EU voters successful using their votes tactically to prevent a Conservative victory are highest. According to our data, it would take less than 2,500 tactical votes in these seats to prevent the Conservative Party winning.
In Dewsbury it would take just 82 Green and Lib Dem voters backing Labour to prevent the Conservative Party winning the seat. Other seats on the list include West Bromwich West, Carshalton and Wallington and Sedgefield.
Because of the smaller majority predicted for the Conservatives, Best for Britain now estimates it would take as little as 40,704 pro-EU voters nationally using their vote tactically to prevent a Tory majority.
The data has been used to inform Best for Britain’s final tactical voting recommendations at getvoting.org. The campaign launched its tactical voting tool on 30 October at a press conference attended by former Liberal Democrat leader Vince Cable, Independent MP Dominic Grieve and Labour MP Anna McMorrin.
Key findings from the data
- The Conservative majority has halved from 82 to just 40 since Best for Britain’s last MRP update (27 November)
- In order to block a Conservative majority, and the possibility of a supply and confidence relationship with the Democratic Unionist Party which could be used to force through Boris Johnson’s damaging Brexit plans, pro-EU parties need to prevent the Conservatives winning in 36 seats they are predicted to hold or gain
- If tactical voting were successful in just these 36 seats, the Conservatives would win 309 seats, Labour would win 255 seats, Lib Dems would win 14 seats, Greens would win 1 seats, Plaid would win 3 seats, and the SNP would win 49 seats
- Best for Britain’s analysis shows that tactical voting will be crucial in this bid to prevent a Conservative majority and have identified the 36 seats where tactical voting has the best chance of being successful.
- These are seats where it would take 2,500 or less tactical votes to prevent the Conservatives winning, with an average of just 1,131 votes needed. In Dewsbury, it would take just 82 Lib Dem and Green voters to use their vote tactically in order to take the seat
- Best for Britain estimates it would take as little as 40,704 tactical votes across these 36 seats to prevent the Conservatives winning a majority
- Even outside of these 36 constituencies, lots of others seats are still in play for pro-EU parties. There are 73 seats where 5,000 or less tactical votes would prevent the Conservatives winning
Commenting, Best for Britain CEO Naomi Smith said:
"The Tories will be quaking in their boots today.
"Just a fortnight ago Boris Johnson was on course to win a landslide, but weeks of telling lies and ducking interviews have caught up with him.
"Now he faces the very real possibility of remainers in just thirty-six marginal seats using tactical voting to cannibalise what's left of his expected majority.
"This election is on a knife-edge, and if enough remainers hold their nose and vote for the candidate with the best chance of stopping the Tories in their seat we're heading for a hung Parliament and a final say referendum."