With 100% of the 1.4 million votes now counted in the EU referendum held Sunday, the “Yes” vote stands at 50.46%, to 49.54% who voted “No,” according to the Central Electoral Commission. Turnout was 49.24%. The result of the referendum proved far closer than pollsters had predicted, with Moldovan President Maia Sandu accusing “foreign forces” of attempting to “assault our country's freedom and democracy” following evidence of Russian interference earlier this month.
Why does the Moldovan vote matter?
The referendum was seen as a major test for the incumbent Maia Sandu’s pro-EU platform and, while not legally binding, now codifies the policy of EU membership into the Moldovan constitution.
The first round of the Moldovan Presidential election was also held on Sunday. Sandu, who won 42% of the vote, will face off against the pro-Russian candidate Alexandr Stoianoglo, who won 26% of the vote, in the final round on the 3rd of November.
Moldova has pivoted between closer relationships with Europe and Russia since the country's independence in 1991 following the dissolution of the Soviet Union. The election of pro-European Presidential candidate Sandu in a landslide victory in 2020 proved to be pivotal in determining the country's response to the Russian invasion of Moldova’s neighbour Ukraine. Sandu and her government utilised the conflict to distance themselves further from Russia, with Moldovan Prime Minister, Dorin Recean, stating in May 2023 that the country had gained full energy independence from Russia.
Has there been Russian interference in Moldova?
Throughout the conflict in Ukraine, Russian agents have been accused of stepping up campaigns of disinformation and cyber-warfare against the Moldovan government. There were fears surrounding Russian interference in the votes on Sunday after national police chief Viorel Cernăuțanu alleged that the Kremlin and exiled pro-Russian Moldovan billionaire Ilan Shor were conspiring to undermine the country's democracy.
Moldovan law enforcement had alleged that over $15 million had been directed into around 130,000 Moldovan bank accounts prior to the election in what Cernăuțanu labelled a “mafia-style” scheme aimed at buying votes. In a country of just over 2.5 million, such widespread interference could have proven disastrous for the pro-EU cause and may illustrate why the polls were so inaccurate.
What does this mean for the UK?
Russian interference in Moldova is the latest example of an increasingly erratic form of foreign policy from Russia which has been conducted with “increasing recklessness”, according to head of MI5 Ken McCallum. Last week, news broke that counter-terrorism police were investigating the possibility of Russian involvement in planting an incendiary device which caught fire at a warehouse in Birmingham.
Christopher Steele, the former head of the MI6 Russia desk, has also argued that there was evidence of Russian involvement during this summer's riots, saying in August it “was clear there is some Russian involvement… when you look at the original disinformation that surrounded the Southport killings that does seem to have come from a Russian-linked website”.
Moldova’s resilience to Russian interference should be celebrated, as should their decision to commit to joining the European Union, furthering the country's cultural and economic ties with the rest of Europe. Moldova’s decision on Sunday symbolises the importance of democracy and acts as a reminder that the dream of closer European cooperation is alive and well.