New election polling: Johnson projected to lose his seat at next election

New seat level polling analysis released this weekend by Best for Britain projects that Prime Minister Boris Johnson will lose his seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip at the next general election. 

The in-depth constituency level MRP polling also showed that if Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party cooperate with each other at the election, Labour are projected to win 323 seats and the Liberal Democrats 13, putting them comfortably in the position of forming a coalition government without the help of the SNP. 

However, if opposition parties fail to work together, the polling projects that in the most likely scenario Labour will still fall 18 seats short of an overall majority, leaving them reliant on the SNP to form a government.  If other right wing parties such as Reform UK stand down in seats where Conservative MPs are vulnerable, as UKIP and the Brexit Party did back in 2017 and 2019, the polling shows they can deny Starmer the keys to Number 10.

The polling was undertaken throughout April 2022 which saw Partygate and the Prime Minister’s fixed penalty notice, the Chancellor's non-dom scandal and the rising cost of living, when conditions were most favourable to Labour. Yet despite this, they wouldn't be able to form a majority alone.

This analysis comes as new polling by Focaldata on behalf of Best for Britain shows that 54% of Labour supporters and 56% of Lib Dem supporters want the leaders of both parties to work more closely with the Greens. Conversely, only 12% of Labour supporters and 15% of Lib Dem supporters do not want closer cooperation.  

Naomi Smith, Chief Executive Officer of Best for Britain, said

“Once again, Best for Britain’s seat level analysis shows the safest route to victory in defeating this corrupt Government is for the opposition parties to work together at election time. Labour voters are twice as likely to back the Lib Dem candidate than the Conservative candidate where Labour doesn’t stand, Lib Dem voters are three times as likely to back Labour than the Conservatives, and the Greens five times as likely. 

“Up and down the country grassroots groups are collaborating to defeat the Government, and it is time for Starmer and Davey to catch up. The majority of voters didn’t back the Conservatives last time, and won’t next time, so under our arcane voting system, opposition parties need to cooperate and deliver a Government that reflects the true will of the people.”

Liberal Democrat MP for Oxford West and Abingdon, Layla Moran said

“The Conservatives have delivered a decade of lost growth, a botched pandemic response and now a cost of living crisis pushing millions into poverty.

“In an election where the opposition vote is split, many voters will want to back the candidate who is most likely to win and deliver change. To this end we must be honest with each other about the situation in each constituency and ensure that the voters have the information they need to lock the Tories out of power.”

Green Party MP for Brighton Pavilion, Caroline Lucas said

“This polling shows that in many constituencies, the Green Party holds the key to beating the Conservatives, a point underlined by our strong performance in the local elections last week.

“Our door is open to cooperation with other parties who must now decide if they want to gamble the future of this country in a game where the odds are stacked against them.”