January 17, 2019 8:30 AM

9 in 10 Conservative seats back a final say on Brexit

New research shows over nine in 10 Conservative held seats have a majority of voters who want the people to have the final say on Brexit to break the deadlock in Parliament.

The analysis, commissioned by Best for Britain and HOPE not hate, was released on the morning of the launch of the 'Right to Vote' campaign, a group of Conservative parliamentarians and party members that are seeking to give voters a final say on the actual terms of Britain's proposed exit from the EU.

Key findings of the MRP research include:

  • 290 of 317 Conservative held seats support a people’s vote (91.5%)
  • Of these, 166 seats have over 55% support and 44 over 60%
  • Greg Hands' constituency of Chelsea and Fulham saw the highest levels of support, at 73%
  • In Theresa May’s constituency, 59.5% support a public vote to break the impasse
  • In Amber Rudd’s seat of Hastings and Rye there is 52.5% support
  • Arch Brexiteer Jacob Rees-Mogg's seat has 52.41% support
  • 61.4% of people in Boris Johnson’s Uxbridge constituency back a vote on the deal

Commenting, Right to Vote campaigner and Best for Britain supporter Dr Phillip Lee MP said:

“The data provided by Best For Britain’s research shows that people have been underestimating Conservative support for a referendum giving people the final say on Brexit.

“I know from private conversations at Parliament that backing among my colleagues for a referendum is there and is growing fast. We am to accelerate that with today’s launch of the Conservative-led Right to Vote campaign.

“Conservative politicians need to pay attention to today’s findings. Across all Conservative held parliamentary seats, 55.8% of voters in Conservative want a referendum if parliament is deadlocked over Brexit, as it continues to be.”

Best for Britain CEO Eloise Todd added:

"We welcome the launch of Right to Vote and applaud the MPs that are speaking out for what’s best for their constituents. Britain is uniting around the need for the question of our future in Europe to be put to the people.
 
“There is a real danger that Westminster will offer a fudge, cobbled together in backrooms. But people across the country want to have the final say on Brexit and MPs must now deliver that.”


  1. Data tables are here.

  2. The analysis, using multilevel regression and post-stratification (MRP) methodology, was carried out by FocalData and based on two waves of YouGov polling, the first (1660 people) 14-15 December and the second (5125 people) 2-7 January.

  3. MRP is a statistical technique that delivers more accurate and granular estimates of public opinion than traditional methods at market research agencies. It does this by combining raw polling with additional data, such as information from the national census. The more information available the more accurate your estimates, as the poll can be weighted with more, and relevant, variables such as ethnicity and 2015 GE vote choice.

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