New research indicates that Rishi Sunak is not welcome in seats where top Tories are at risk of losing their seats, suggesting candidates view his presence as a deterrent to Conservative voters.
The analysis of Sunak’s campaign route by Best for Britain shows that besides his own seat of Richmond and Northallerton, the Prime Minister has only made trips to another 4 out of 45 constituencies, where Cabinet members and other prominent Tory politicians are facing their very own ‘Portillo moments’.
These include Central Devon, where the Prime Minister’s key ally, Mel Stride is standing for re-election, Melksham and Devizes where Science Secretary Michelle Donelan is currently clinging on, and Thérèse Coffey’s seaside seat, Suffolk Coastal.
In the fourth constituency visited by Sunak, Stoke-on-Trent North, the problematic deputy chairman of the Conservative Party Jonathan Gullis is standing but almost certain to lose, trailing by a substantial 18 pts.
Of the total 45, exactly a third of the seats are currently being won or lost by the Conservative candidate by a margin of less than 5% according to Best for Britain’s latest megapoll and MRP analysis by Survation. In Victoria Prentis’ seat of Banbury, for example, it is a total coinflip with just 0.67pts separating her and second place. In John Glen’s seat Salisbury, the margin is even smaller at 0.4pts.
Sunak has yet to visit any of these seats and it is unclear whether this is his decision or that of the candidates. However, recent reports suggest it could be the latter, with Conservative PPCs apparently turning down offers from the Prime Minister to campaign in their patch, with one explicitly saying “he is better off out of it, I don’t want to be tainted by him.”
This isn’t the first time campaigning candidates have distanced themselves from the Prime Minister. In the elections on 2 May, high-profile metro mayor Ben Houchen, made no secret of the fact he was running on an individual ticket not as a party representative, choosing not to mention Sunak in any of his election literature or his victory speech. Conveniently he also forgot to wear his blue rosette.
With the election just days away the public are being advised to vote tactically in these areas and beyond to deliver the heaviest defeat possible to the Conservatives.
Naomi Smith, Chief Executive of Best for Britain and founder of GetVoting.org said,
“Sunak’s problem is that even his own party doesn't want him around, let alone the public.
“We need a clean break from him, his party, and the damage they have caused over the past 14 years, and the best way voters can ensure the Tories are locked out of power for at least a decade is by voting tactically.”