Scotland - the most marginal nation in the UK as 3 in 5 constituencies up for grabs at next General Election

Scotland has been designated the most marginal nation with our megapoll showing 3 in 5 (58%) of Scottish constituencies are up for grabs at the next election.

Best for Britain’s ‘Nowcast’ MRP poll of more than 15,000 people undertaken by Survation found that of the 57 Scottish constituencies that will be contested at the next general election, 21 are set to change hands and a further twelve are either ultra marginal, where those leading the poll are within 2.5% of their closest rival, or  marginal (within 5%) . 

Our constituency level analysis found that of these new battlegrounds, the fight between SNP and Labour accounts for all ultra marginal seats where the result is currently a coin toss for Anas Sarwar and Humza Yousaf.  

The contest between Labour and the SNP also accounts for all but one marginal seat where the SNP are closest to unseating the Conservatives in the constituency of  Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk. The SNP also look set to take the three currently held by the Tories, completing a total wipeout for the Conservatives in Scotland.

The analysis has revealed that Scotland is the most marginal nation in Great Britain, with a total of  22 out of 57 (40%) seats in Scotland classed as either ‘marginal’ or ‘ultra marginal’. Comparatively, only 30% of constituencies in England and a mere 6% of seats in Wales are as close. Labour is hot on the heels of the SNP in 12 seats, having already leapfrogged them to first place in 9 constituencies, plus one Conservative and 2 Alba. 

Aberdeen South, is currently the most marginal constituency in Scotland where the SNP’s Westminster leader Stephen Flynn holds a paper thin lead of 0.2% over Labour. Meanwhile, the Tories are set to lose the seat currently held by the Secretary of State for Scotland Alister Jack, and the Parliamentary Under-Secretary of State Andrew Bowie. Moray West, one of new constituencies, as well has the seat held by Leader of the Scottish Conservatives Douglas Ross who has confirmed he will not seek re-election.

This data is not adjusted for potential tactical voting and the mega-poll shows more than half of all respondents in Scotland (52%) are open to voting tactically suggesting that voter information campaigns could therefore be decisive with the polling also showing that one in four Scots (27%) are unaware that they will need photo ID to vote at the next General Election. By comparison, the number of people in the dark about new voter ID rules is lower in Wales (20%) and in England (14%).

Best for Britain will provide voters with reminders about photo ID requirements via