Tactical Voting MRP Polling: June 2024

A new mega-poll and MRP analysis shows that at least a third of voters in 558 constituencies say they would vote tactically to change the Government. In 234 seats this jumps to 40% and in 31 seats, more than half are ready to vote for someone other than their first preference.

  • In the Prime Minister’s seat of Richmond and Northallerton, 40% are ready to vote tactically for a change of Government.
    • Rishi Sunak has a 7-point lead in his seat according to Best for Britain's latest poll. 
    • Best for Britain's tactical voting tool recommends voting Labour in Richmond and Northallerton.
  • In the Chancellor Jeremy Hunt's seat of Godalming and Ash, 45% say they would vote tactically.
    • The latest polling shows Jeremy Hunt is trailing the Lib Dem candidate in his seat by 16 points.
    • Best for Britain's tactical voting tool recommends voting Lib Dem in Godalming and Ash.

A fifth say their voting intention is already tactical

Best for Britain’s massive poll of more than 22,000 people and MRP analysis undertaken by Survation revealed that 21% say their voting intention is already tactical and that they are planning to vote tactically to stop a candidate or party from winning. 

Voters are willing to consider other parties

A majority of Lib Dem voters (54%) and 45% of Green voters would consider voting Labour and almost 40% of Labour voters are willing to consider voting for the Lib Dems and Greens. A similar number of Reform UK voters (37%) are willing to vote Conservative. 

A majority of Labour, Lib Dem and Green voters are willing to consider voting tactically to change the government. Two in five voters would consider voting tactically to change the current government - including a majority of Labour, Lib Dem, and Green voters (and 44% of SNP). Younger voters are much more likely to hold this view.

Majority unaware of who is likely to come second

However, research by the Political Studies Association has revealed that 2 in 3 people can’t name which party is likely to come in second place where they live. This makes it harder to coordinate a challenge around the best party to take on the incumbent, because most people don't know who the best challenger is. Tactical voting only works if you know who the current MP is, local factors, and the latest polling. That is why Best for Britain's tactical voting tool is recommending 451 candidates across Britain, with the aim of dealing the heaviest possible electoral defeat for the Government to keep them out of power for at least a decade and to avoid the election of Reform UK MPs. recommends people vote tactically for the Labour Party in 370 seats, the Liberal Democrats in 69, the Greens in 3, the SNP in 7 and Plaid Cymru in 2. No recommendation has been made in the remaining 181 seats, because the opposition party is so far ahead.

Data tables