As the American election edges ever closer and with the polls in many of the swing states too close to call, a second Trump presidency remains a very real possibility. What will a Trump administration mean for the UK and for Europe? Whilst more obvious concerns surrounding NATO, Ukraine and trade remain prominent, a more underdeveloped concern surrounds the empowerment of European populists and authoritarian politicians.
The reverberations from the result of the U.S. election on the 6th of November will echo around Europe. Here are the three key areas a second Trump term will affect;
Defence
The clearest effect of a Trump presidency is how it will undermine efforts on our continent to ensure security and oppose Russian expansionism. On the topic of Ukraine, Trump has claimed that he would be able to end the conflict within 24-hours of his inauguration, whilst recent revelations surrounding the donation of COVID-19 tests to Vladimir Putin have proved worrisome for Ukrainians who fear the apparent closeness of the two men.
Trump’s politics are based on a brand of populism that is isolationist and protectionist. His loyal lieutenants in Congress have long bemoaned and attempted to block the spending of U.S. dollars on Ukraine, wilfully ignoring the importance that maintaining a rules based international system has for American economic prosperity and security. But Trump’s view on Ukraine is common within his party. Pew Research Center found that 47% of Republicans felt that America was giving too much aid to Ukraine and 62% felt that the U.S. had no responsibility to help Ukraine.
Trump criticised the fiscal contributions of European allies to NATO during his first presidency. Whilst those around Trump argue that a full exit from the treaty is unlikely, a second Trump term would likely involve a ‘reorientation’ of NATO and the creation of what a former senior member of Trump’s administration labelled ‘a tiered alliance’, where not meeting the threshold of spending 2% of GDP on defence disqualifies a country from U.S. security assurances. A potential reinterpretation of the all-important Article 5, which underpins the organisation has also been mooted. Another Trump presidency would undermine NATO, lead to an isolationist American foreign policy and erode confidence in international security. America under Trump could no longer be relied upon as the guarantors of international security.
For the UK and Europe this is particularly problematic, whilst Trump’s hawkish approach to China means that defence spending in Asia will likely be maintained, it is clear that Trump does not hold the same animosity toward Russia. Nor for that matter does Trump feel married to a ‘special relationship’ with the UK or EU, labelling the latter a ‘foe’ in 2018. A Trump presidency would strengthen the importance of a closer and more formal security alliance between the UK and EU, as David Lammy explored in Luxembourg.
Trade
Trump’s interpretation of the aforementioned special relationship between America and the UK was made clear in his first official visit in 2018. In a single state visit, Trump undermined May’s potential Brexit deal, called for Boris Johnson to become PM and erroneously attacked Sadiq Khan for enabling terrorism. Any notion that the UK, especially under a Labour Government that has been heavily misrepresented by the American populist right over the summer (think Elon Musk), would receive any reprieve from Trump's tariffs are sorely misplaced.
One of the gravest concerns surrounding a second term is that this time Trump will be untamed, understanding the levers of power at his control much more intuitively. Whilst Trump has not gone as far as the promised 60% tariffs on Chinese goods, he has ensured his electorate that all goods from other countries, including the UK and EU would have at least a 20% tariff placed upon them. In August, the former President said “I know the European Union very well. They take great advantage of the United States in trade, as you know,”. Whilst America is currently running a trade deficit with Europe on goods of €156 billion and a surplus of €104 billion on services, slapping punitive tariffs on Europe would harm not just Europe but American consumers by driving up prices through the removal of competition.
Additionally, if Trump raises tariffs on Chinese goods to 60%, then China could be forced to pursue a more aggressive trading policy with the EU & UK to make up for the loss of trading capacity in America. China, burdened by a surplus of unsold goods, would be incentivised to undercut domestic industries in the UK & EU in much the same manner as the ongoing electric vehicle spat. Secondly, irrespective of whether Kamala Harris or Trump wins the keys to the White House, American policies have undergone a Trumpification over the past eight years. Harris’ trade policies are reminiscent of Trumps in his first term, whilst she has poached policies in areas from immigration to energy. Trump has reshaped the political framework within which American policies, left or right are interpreted, developed and enacted.
Empowering the hard right
Political earthquakes are felt far beyond national borders and the rising wave of hard-right populists around Europe will be emboldened and empowered with a fresh sense of self-confidence should Trump win in November. Trump’s idealisation of authoritarian leaders is particularly dangerous. From calling Putin ‘a genius’ for invading Ukraine to telling supporters that he and Kim Jong-Un ‘fell in love’, Trump has a predisposition for diplomatic flirtation with strongmen.
The latest of these authoritarians to cosy up with Trump is Victor Orban of Hungary. This is particularly troublesome for the EU as Orban has become a thorn in the side of Brussels particularly in securing aid to Ukraine. Alongside Orban, Putin and Erdogan, groups, including Vox in Spain, the National Rally in France, AfD in Germany and Britain’s Reform Party would glean confidence from another Trump electoral victory.
Legitimacy is the goal for these hard-right populist parties, they are at once paradoxically seeking to be outside of the establishment but also a legitimate force within it. A Trump presidency, particularly one which is even more radical than the last, empowers these populist groups across Europe, it legitimises their cause in the eyes of their electorate and raises their hopes that the political mainstream are vulnerable to those once on the periphery of acceptability.
To illustrate the effectiveness of Trump on shaping UK politics and the extent to which radical views are becoming increasingly legitimised in the mainstream, polling by YouGov on the opinions of Reform voters showed the following;
- 56% of Reform voters had a favourable opinion of Trump, compared to just 16% of Conservative voters.
- More Reform voters (11%) had a favourable view of Putin than of Macron (9%) or Biden (7%).
- Reform voters are three times more likely than the average Brit to think NATO is either entirely or mostly to blame for the conflict in Ukraine.
- 78% of Reform voters think multiculturalism has made Britain worse, compared to 47% of Conservatives and 32% of the population.
- 61% of Reform voters want further distance from the EU, compared to 43% of Conservatives and 22% of the population.
A second Trump presidency has the potential to fundamentally undermine European security, economic stability and democratic values. It has never been more important for the EU and UK to further develop the intimacy of their relationship.