On Friday 6th December, a bill called the European Union (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill 2024 is undergoing its second reading in the House of Commons. Its sponsor, the leader and sole Member of Parliament for the Traditional Unionist Voice, Jim Allister MP argues the bill will return sovereignty to the United Kingdom. But what is the bill and why is it flawed?
The EU (Withdrawal Agreement) Bill 2024 outlines provisions relating to the relationship between Northern Ireland and the EU as set out in the Northern Ireland Protocol and the more recent Windsor Framework. The bill argues that Northern Ireland’s place, effectively in the single market to avoid a hard border between the North and South of Ireland, undermines the union between Northern Ireland and the rest of the United Kingdom.
Allister’s bill proposes that EU law should no longer be legally binding to goods produced in Northern Ireland and argues that a process of mutual enforcement by the UK and Republic of Ireland law forces would negate the need for a hard border by making it illegal to move goods produced through Northern Ireland into the single market.
The notion that such a process of mutual enforcement is remotely achievable is remarkably misguided. The bill, by removing the applicability of EU law to Northern Ireland, would necessitate a hard border between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland. Such a border would open up a Pandora’s box of political and economic instability, not to mention emotional trauma. A hard border across the breadth of Ireland would threaten the stability of the region brought by the Good Friday Agreement, a landmark piece of legislation that brought to an end decades of bloodshed and sectarian conflict.
"Such a border would open up a Pandora’s box of political and economic instability, not to mention emotional trauma"
The precarious circumstances under which the Good Friday Agreement was negotiated highlight the danger posed by this bill in damaging the meticulously cultivated cooperation between the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland over the past 26 years. Whilst Allister has previously claimed that there is ‘nothing to celebrate with the Good Friday Agreement’, a 64% majority of those in Northern Ireland maintain their support for the treaty.
Whilst Allister bemoans what he believes to be the ‘burden’ of EU legislation on Northern Ireland, he risks imparting an even greater weight of political instability onto the shoulders of his compatriots, a weight which would likely spiral toward economic insecurity and damage Northern Ireland’s attractiveness as a place for investment. Allister’s bill also fails to recognise the significant economic benefits to Northern Ireland of being within the single market.
Economists at the University of Strathcylde, argued in 2021 that the post-Brexit positioning of Northern Ireland could give them a ‘best of both worlds’ result, with free and open access to both the UK and the European Union. It would appear their prediction was correct, Northern Ireland is the fastest growing economic region of the United Kingdom. Mark Magill, an economist from Ulster University highlighted earlier this year that from pay to job growth Northern Ireland is outperforming all other regions of the UK. Whilst a 2023 academic paper by Queens University found that ‘the dual access to the EU Single Market and the UK internal market’ was a ‘competitive advantage’.
"From pay to job growth Northern Ireland is outperforming all other regions of the UK"
However, the paper published by the University of Stathcylde argued that under no circumstances would Northern Ireland be better off than if Brexit had not happened. Indeed Cambridge Econometrics found earlier this year that Brexit has already cost the British economy a staggering £140 billion or £2,000 per person. Furthermore, the OBR believes that Britain’s GDP is 4% lower than it would otherwise have been had we not left the European Union. From staffing to export and import regulations, Brexit has harmed British businesses' abilities to trade, produce and prosper. It is not just businesses that have been hit hard, the public have had to endure rising food and energy costs as a result of Brexit, whilst the crisis in the NHS has been worsened by the 4,000 doctors who have left the service thanks to Brexit according to Nuffield Health.
Explore our ‘Cost of Brexit’ page here to learn more about the impact of Brexit
Rather than reopening historical wounds and economically disadvantaging Northern Ireland, Allister could choose a different approach to redress the consequences of Brexit. The UK Trade and Business Commission, a group consisting of cross-party MP’s and business experts has designed a series of 114 recommendations for unlocking the trade potential of the United Kingdom.
In particular the UKTBC focuses on the value of regulatory alignment with the EU for the purpose of economic growth. Currently there is increasing divergence between the UK and EU regulatory frameworks as the EU continues to pass legislation whilst the UK stands still. The net effect of this is an increase in both administrative costs and uncertainty, stemming from the need to adhere to two different sets of regulations. The confusion and additional costs caused by divergent regulatory standards lowers the attractiveness of the UK as a place for investment. It is worth noting that by 2035 it is predicted that Brexit will have decreased the already low rates of investment into the UK by 32%.
"The confusion and additional costs caused by divergent regulatory standards lowers the attractiveness of the UK as a place for investment"
Allister is correct that the Trade and Cooperation Agreement which outlines our future relationship with the EU is not fit for purpose. But whilst he has accurately described the symptom he has failed to diagnose the illness. It is not so much an issue of Northern Ireland being under EU laws and regulations rather than an issue that the rest of the United Kingdom is not. Regulatory divergence is damaging the United Kingdom, whether as a place to invest, to work or to prosper. It is the very alleviation of this ailment that is delivering some of the best economic indicator results to Northern Ireland. Northern Ireland’s position, so close to the EU and Single Market is an example to be followed and not criticised.