2024 Presidential Election: America’s Bonfire Night
Part 1: The King or Queen-maker States
What is a swing state? And how does the American voting system actually work? As the US election draws ominously close, we begin our coverage by explaining the electoral college system and taking a closer look at the seven ‘swing states’ that could decide this election.
For many, America remains that shining city upon a hill, a bastion of democracy for the rest of the world to follow. However, if that city be Washington and that hill be Capitol Hill, then the words of John F Kennedy only serve to contrast the hope of post-war America with the fractures of the country today.
Come the 5th of November, America will be voting for a new President, or perhaps the return of an old one. Whilst fireworks light up British skies, an explosive result could be taking shape across America. The decision between Donald Trump and Kamala Harris offers the starkest choice in modern American history. The country has become a powder keg, fractious and volatile.
The choice is between a man so successful at business he has filed for bankruptcy six times, a man that at least 19 women have accused of sexual misconduct, a man that he has previously claimed that if Ivanka was not his daughter, he would date her.
Or Kamala Harris. District Attorney for San Francisco at 39, Attorney General of California at 46, U.S. Senator at 52. The only female Vice-President in American history.
But Republicans and Democrats no longer just disagree, they despise. Recent research by the Pew Research Centre illustrates an acceleration of political partisanship in America. The events on January 6th, inspired by unfounded accusations of electoral fraud, illustrate the very real danger that if Trump loses the election again, America may wake up on the 6th of November to the threat of another violent insurrection. Mistrust and paranoia about a left wing conspiracy to ‘steal’ the election are already omnipresent amongst Trump supporters.
But how will the winner be decided, and when will we know for sure who's taken the presidency?
What the hell is the electoral college?
As a Brit, the American system for choosing their President can often be confusing. The winner of the popular vote doesn't always win the election, thanks to the electoral college system and disproportionate impact of swing states (this happened to Hillary Clinton in 2016, and Al Gore in 2000).
Here are the six things you need to know to make sense of the electoral college:
- There are 538 electoral college votes in total.
- These votes are distributed to states based on the number of Senators and House Representatives they have.
- This ensures that every state, even if they have a relatively small population, has at least three electoral votes, because every state has two Senators and at least one Representative in the House.
- This means that the votes are not proportional to population size (for example there are around 720,000 Californian voters for every electoral college vote compared to 215,000 Vermontians for every vote).
- 48 of the 50 states adopt a winner-takes-all approach to their electoral college votes.
- Therefore, a few hundred votes can massively swing an election, handing a large proportion of the electoral votes to one candidate in their march toward the 270 needed for victory. Take the 2000 presidential election, where 537 votes in Florida decided the destination of 25 electoral votes, decisively changing the result in George Bush’s favour.
Due to the aforementioned polarisation of American politics, we already know what will happen in most states. For example, unless hell freezes over or Boris Johnson develops a moral compass, California will vote for Harris, whilst Alabama will vote for Trump.
However, there remain seven swing states that garner most of the party funding, candidate campaigning and manic media coverage: Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Polls: Harris 46.8% vs Trump 48.1% (+/- 1.3%)
Key Issue:
A study by The Centre of the Future of Arizona found that concerns around economic growth in the state, as well as concerns regarding immigration, particularly across the Mexican border were the most important issues for voters. Interestingly however, the state appears to be moving toward a more bipartisan approach to politics. Concerns surrounding prominent Republican Kari Lakes’ claim of a stolen gubernatorial election in 2022 have led some Republicans to disavow her renewed run for the U.S. Senate this year.
However, that 2022 gubernatorial election which saw Hobbs defeat Lake by a wafer-thin margin of 50.3% to 49.7% illustrates just how close this election will be in Arizona. Current polls seem to point toward Trump recapturing the State he won during 2016 and lost four years later.
A key aspect of this American election is the changing winds of demography. Disturbingly, the American Right has painted this election along lines which challenge the legitimacy of the electoral result due to the changing racial demographics of some states. Over the last decade Arizona has seen a rise in the number of Hispanic voters, which could prove pivotal in such a tight race as Hispanic voters have historically supported the Democrats in greater numbers.
Polls: Harris 47.1% vs Trump 48.4% (+/- 1.3%)
Key Issue:
Joe Biden's win here was undoubtedly one of the shocks of the 2020 election. Whilst a swing state, Georgiahas only voted for a Democratic candidate twice in the last ten elections. However, despite the latest polls leaning toward a Trump victory, the demographic changes in Georgia are even more pronounced than in Arizona.
In 1990, Georgia was a state with a 71% white population. By 2020 this had dropped to 52%, and four years on the state is increasingly younger and more diverse.Much like in Texas, another Southern State, young Democrats are finding previously elusive electoral success here.
Emblematic of this new wave of young Democrats rocking The Peach State is Jon Ossoff, a 37-year-old U.S. Senator from Atlanta, a former filmmaker and investigative journalist. With an increasingly diverse electorate, and thanks to the years of campaigning against the suppression of black voters by Abrams, this race could see a similar result to Florida in 2000.
Polls: Harris 47.9% vs Trump 46.4% (+/- 1.5%)
Key Issue:
A major coup for Donald Trump in his march toward the White House in 2016, Michigan had historically been a safe Democratic state. However, rising unemployment and the deindustrialisation of Detroit created poverty and disillusionment with the efficacy of Democratic policies in the region. In 2013 Detroit became the largest U.S. city to file for bankruptcy, and the state struggled with unemployment during the COVID-19 pandemic. Michigan is also home to the infamous town of Flint, where lead poisoning in the water caused domestic and international outrage and an explosive expose by veteran film-maker Michael Moore.
The state has fallen from the 16th to the 39th largest economy/capita of the American states over the last 25 years, and it is predicted to continue its slide to 48th by 2045. Nevertheless, under the Biden administration unemployment has dropped massively and growth has slowly been picking up.
Polls: Harris 47.8% vs Trump 46.8% (+/- 1%)
Key issue:
Since 1980, Nevada has voted for every single U.S. President, bar one: Donald Trump. It may be the home of Las Vegas but it is usually a safe bet that whoever this small desert state selects as President will become the Commander-in-Chief.
Nevada is a state dominated by the Las Vegas metropolitan area - around 2.2 million people or 71% of the state’s population live in and around the city. Like much of America it has undergone remarkable changes in demography. Between 2000 and 2020, Nevada has gone from a state with a 65% white population to one with 45% white population. In 2024 there are 41 million new ‘Gen Z’ voters eligible to vote for the first time in Nevada, and 45% of these are ethnic minorities.
With Donald Trump failing to win in 2016 and 2020, and the electorate becoming younger and more diverse, it is likely that Nevada will vote for Harris, which could signal the end of the state's classification as a swing state. However, Joe Lombardo’s win for the Republican Party in the gubernatorial race in 2023 should keep Democrats sufficiently on their toes.
Polls: Harris 47.3% vs Trump 48.1% (+/- 0.8%)
Key issue:
Barack Obama is the only Democrat to have received electoral college votes from North Carolina since recent centurion Jimmy Carter in 1976, and still Obama lost the support of the Tar-Heel State in his re-election campaign in 2012.
However, the past is the past, and importantly the past does not cast ballots. North Carolina is perhaps the quintessential ‘split-state’ with a Democratic Governor, Republican U.S. Senate and a perfectly split U.S. House of Representatives congregation. Current polling shows this race is one of the closest of this election, so the result could really go either way.
History says Trump, but the repeal of Roe vs Wade has had a profound effect on women in North Carolina where abortion is currently illegal after 12 weeks. The powerful issue of reproductive rights may just be enough to tilt this race in favour of Harris and the Democratic Party.
Polls: Harris 48% vs Trump 47.3% (+/- 0.7%)
Key issue:
Pennsylvania’s Democratic Governor, Josh Shapiro, was hotly tipped to be Kamala Harris’ Vice-Presidential pick before she opted for Tim Walz. Shapiro is a remarkably popular figure in the crucial swing-state and has introduced popular policies such as raising education budgets and providing stauch protection for abortion rights, whilst also gaining statewide praise for his adept handling of the collapse of the Interstate-95 bridge.
However, Pennsylvania is also the state where Donald Trump narrowly avoided death. It is unclear what effect the assassination attempt, which killed a local volunteer firefighter, will have on the election overall, but specifically in the state of incidence. The polls are remarkably tight, but the sense amongst the Democratic leadership appears to be that Josh Shapiro’s personal popularity and efficacy as Governor will carry Harris to victory.
Nevertheless, Pennsylvania is the single closest race of the whole election - and Trump knows it. On Saturday he returned to the site of his attempted assassination with Elon Musk, a man who remains very popular amongst the American right despite increasing evidence of the biggest midlife crisis in history. Most people buy a motorbike, not a social media platform Elon. Trump and his team will spend the next few weeks tirelessly campaigning in Pennsylvania, and with the added weight of the assassination attempt on Trump, this vote will likely be a coinflip. Hardly the most reassuring news as without Pennsylvania, Harris’ path to victory becomes incredibly narrow.
The Keystone state will truly be living up to its name.
Polls: Harris 48.4% vs Trump 46.8% (+/- 1.6%)
Key issue:
In the last two presidential elections in Wisconsin the gap between the Democratic and Republican candidates has been less than 1%. In fact, only Barack Obama since the turn of the century has won here by more than a percentage point. This may well be a Democrat-leaning state, but it will be very close. Joe Biden won here in 2020 by a meagre 0.62% - in a state famous for its icy conditions and snowstorms, a particularly cold November day could turn the tide of this election.
Wisconsin forms part of the famous Rust Belt that propelled Trump to victory in 2016. Alongside Pennsylvania and Michagan it is a crucial part of the Blue Wall that Harris must win if she is to defeat Trump. Around 80% of Wisconsin voters are white, making it one of the least diverse states in the union, and with a significant manufacturing industry the result of this state will largely depend on who working-class voters feel best represents them. Trump’s protectionist policies and rallying cry against globalisation have proved popular with white working-class voters, but crucially 57% of Wisconsians opposed the Supreme Court ruling that overturned Roe vs Wade.
Democrat Tony Evers has proven to be a popular Governor over the last five years, and the place of fellow Midwesterner Tim Walz on the Democratic presidential ticket may be pivotal in providing the kind of relatability that some along the Rust Belt felt the Democratic Party lost under Hillary Clinton.
Too close to call?
Despite the advance of China, America remains the hegemonic nation. Its 333 million citizens produce $25.4 trillion of global GDP, 26% of global economic production.In the UK and Europe, our cultural imaginations - spanning music, film and technology - have been dominated by American industry for decades. America has the power to not only set economic trends, but to influence how you and I spend our leisure time and dictate foreign policy through the might of their military. It has the power to drive social progress forward, or set the mission of equality back by decades. This election matters for Britain. And it's on a knife edge.
Our next piece in this series will outline what an America under Trump would mean for Britain, and importantly for our relationship with Europe.
In the meantime, please enjoy this US Election Predictor Tool and make your own predictions!