"Do you really believe that there is a greater threat now to democracy than at any other time since the Second World War?"
"Yes, I do."
These were the words of former US president Joe Biden, speaking to the BBC on the eve of the eightieth anniversary of VE (Victory in Europe) Day. His assertion is that the actions of Donald Trump - backtracking on alliances, appeasing Russia, and undermining NATO - have left us on the same precipice his parents' generation faced at the end of the Second World War. A choice between a future of geopolitical alliances, security and liberal democracy; or a descent into nationalism and protectionism.
The ties that bind Europe and the US have frayed in the 100 days since Trump took office. Our transatlantic alliance is wearing thin as Trump pressures Ukraine to cede territory to Russia, a move which Biden described as "modern-day appeasement". Biden's concerns, that "Europe is going to lose confidence in the certainty of America, and the leadership of America in the world, to deal with not only NATO but other matters of consequence," have already borne fruit. Recent polling shows 70% of Brits think the world is "overall a worse place" since Trump took office. More than half of Europeans consider Trump an "enemy of Europe", and only 13% believe he respects democratic principles. Europe is now preparing for a future without the US defence backstop, where Trump significantly cuts American contributions to NATO, or even withdraws support entirely. There are calls for defence spending to rise across the EU; France and Germany have announced a joint defence and security council; and it's expected that a new defence and security pact will be announced at the UK-EU summit on 19 May.
But it's not enough for the UK to pledge greater cooperation in these limited areas. Hiking defence spending to 2.5% of GDP, as Keir Starmer has pledged to do, means finding an extra £13.4 billion to spend on defence every year from 2027. To achieve this without a return to austerity, we need sustained economic growth - which could be achieved by agreeing a better trade deal with the EU. Independent economic modelling by Frontier Economics revealed a common sense deal, with alignment on goods and services, could deliver up to 2.2% GDP growth in the long term - more than any other policy proposal put forward by the government, such as expanding Heathrow airport (0.43% growth) or planning reforms (0.2% growth).
The public implicitly understands this. Our latest polling with YouGov revealed a majority of Brits expect trade to be the government's top priority at the UK-EU summit on 19 May, above improving defence and security cooperation and tackling illegal immigration across the English Channel. Frictionless trade with our nearest and largest trading partner is the growth lever our country has been missing since Brexit, and will be vital to securing the billions of pounds of defence investment required if the UK is to stand shoulder-to-shoulder with our European allies.
Trump is deeply sceptical of the institutions built at the end of the Second World War - the UN, the European Union, NATO - that were intended to promote international cooperation and prevent such a devastating conflict from recurring. His hostility leaves a vacuum on the world stage. It is critical to the stability of our continent that the UK works with our European allies to fill it. To do so means doing three things: being clear-eyed about how to kickstart our economy. Casting off the isolationism of the Brexit years. And being honest with the British public about why, standing once again on unstable geopolitical ground, we need to tether ourselves to our most reliable allies.