A major new study to examine the motivations, priorities and life experiences of potential Reform UK voters has identified five distinct groups among Reform’s support
With Reform UK enjoying a sustained poll lead, the survey of over 4,000 people who said they are considering voting for the party was undertaken by YouGov on behalf of Best for Britain. It asked a range of questions to get a detailed understanding of what was driving this increased appetite for populist politics.
Adding a compelling new dimension to the data, a separate ethnographic study by Faster Horses asked a balanced group of 18 Reform-curious voters from across the UK to document their lives over the course of a typical week. They shared their thoughts and feelings, filmed their neighbourhoods, and recorded their media usage - revealing not just their political journeys, but their day-to-day lived experience and emotional reality.
The YouGov poll reveals five distinct groups among Reform UK voters. Within them, it is the Melancholy Middle and Civic Pragmatics who are most likely to be persuaded to vote for another party and who are relatively more progressive in their views. Unsurprisingly, the findings suggest that the Conservatives could also draw support from the Traditional Conservatives group.
Despite being united on feelings of frustration and pessimism, the study found these groups differ significantly in their demographic make-up and economic backgrounds. They are also acutely divided on key policy areas including the future of the NHS and the welfare state, climate change, how close the UK should be with the EU and the merits of Britain having a leader who is ‘prepared to break rules to get things done’.
The findings come as Reform UK tops many opinion polls. A recent MRP from YouGov revealed that if an election were held now, Reform would emerge as the largest party but still fall short of a majority. Campaigners hope that this study will help other parties understand what is driving support for Reform and what can be done to reduce support for populists across Britain.
Naomi Smith, Chief Executive of Best for Britain said,
“Reform UK poses a direct threat to our democracy and we need to understand why more people are voting for them.
“Reform voters are now a broad church - united in frustration but clearly divided on many key issues, from keeping the NHS free, to climate change and having someone like Trump in charge of Britain. It is essential that other parties understand this and identify which Reform voters can be convinced to think again.”
Liam Byrne MP said,
“What binds those thinking about voting for Reform is not ideology but shared emotion - a combustible mix of anger, betrayal, disgust, and despair. This is not a policy platform.
“Reform UK’s appeal lies in exploiting these emotions, not offering solutions and this is why a sizable segment of Reform UK voters remain persuadable. They are looking for change, competence, fairness, and simply to be heard.”
Bobby Duffy, Professor of Public Policy and Director of the Policy Institute, King’s College London said,
““The real anger and sense of abandonment among Reform UK supporters and potential supporters shouldn’t be dismissed as a reaction that’s been concocted by populist leaders and social media influencers - it reflects a bitterly disappointing reality experienced by this now large proportion of the electorate.
“Political leaders of all parties need to understand these concerns carefully, through detailed analysis of the realities they’re facing, not the rhetoric and stereotypes.
“This includes recognising that there is not one type of Reform voter, but rather quite distinct groups that are mostly brought together by the sense that things really aren’t working for them, and need to radically change.”