Yesterday, Belarus’ incumbent president, Alexander Lukashenko, won his seventh term in office. The election has been dismissed by the international community and the European Parliament alike as a sham. With Lukashenko winning a staggering 86.8% of the vote and most of his political critics in jail or exile, or indeed endorsing his campaign over their own, it is easy to see why. Belarus remains the Kremlin’s closest ally in Europe, previously acting as a staging post for Russian troops entering Ukraine, and with increasing interference in Eastern European elections from Moscow; what does this election result mean for the region and Europe at large?
“It’s better to have a dictatorship like in Belarus than a democracy like Ukraine” President Lukashenko
Within the international community Belarus’ position as an international pariah is long established. President Lukashenko has held the country's presidency continuously since the office was established in 1994 and has previously been called ‘Europe’s last dictator’ - although Vladimir Putin has sadly made this moniker obsolete.
Belarusian politics is heavily influenced by their relationship with Russia, the 2000s were marked by continued trade disputes with their more powerful neighbour. However, the country gained international coverage during its last election in 2020 following the brutal crackdown on Lukashenko’s political opponents. Anger surrounding the fraudulent nature of the election led to ten months of widespread protests across the country with hundreds of thousands of Belarusians taking to the streets to call for a return to democracy.
The response of the Lukashenko regime drew widespread criticism from the international community. Indeed, the United Nations accused the state of violating its citizens human rights with tens of thousands of protesters being illegally detained and some even killed. Economic and political sanctions on Belarus, including those from Britain, were intensified in 2022 after the country aided Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Belarus’ long borders with both Ukraine and Russia has sparked fear amongst many Belarusians. A report by Chatham House following the outbreak of war found that the majority of Belarusians do not support their involvement in the conflict, however with such clear and unrelenting repression of civil and political rights, it is the power politics of Lukashenko that has succeeded.
“A welcome and dear guest on Russia’s soil” Vladimir Putin
Vladimir Putin was quick to congratulate his ally’s victory calling Lukashenko’s victory “convincing”. Following the political crackdown of 2020, thousands of dissidents fled Minsk to find refuge, including activist Art Balenok who has labelled Lukashenko “a tool [for Putin], he is no longer independent”.
This dependence on Putin for his political power has made Lukashenko vulnerable to the whims of Moscow.Internationally, Belarus is now seen as a vassal state of Russia rather than truly independent. This dependence has also proven to be one of Lukashenko’s main campaigning tools, many voters in the country fear both the instability regime change could bring and the threat of “Becoming like Ukraine” if Putin no longer feels the full support of a new Belarusian state.
Insecurity
The fear of instability and of ‘becoming like Ukraine’ are sentiments shared around the Eastern European region. Recent elections in Moldova, Romania and Georgia have all been marked by accusations of Russian interference and anti-Ukrainian campaigns from Kremlin friendly parties. The emergence of strong men across Europe in de jure democratic countries such as Hungary’s Victor Orban and Turkey’s Tayyip Erdogan illustrates that democratic values require proactive protection.
The rise of far-right populist parties across the West further emphasises our duty to protect democracy from the kind of democratic backsliding we have seen across Eastern Europe. The experiences of countries like Belarus, Hungary and Turkey offer a stark warning to the UK. With the tide of populism which could deliver the Élysée to Le Pen in 2027, the AfD sizable representation in the Bundestag in late February and Trump already in the White House, such threats to our democracy are not so far from home.
“At a time of global insecurity abroad, and economic security at home, [leaving the ECHR] would be catastrophic” Naomi Smith, Best for Britain CEO
The example of Belarus also reminds us of the importance of institutions that act to protect citizens human rights, even from their own state. The erosion of freedoms and the beginning of repression rarely happen overnight, rather they are a longer historical process that chips away at institutions' capabilities and independence of checks and balances in Government.
In recent months we have heard from some politicians on the right of British politics, in particular from Shadow Justice Secretary Robert Jenrick MP and Reform UK’s MPs to leave the ECHR (European Court of Human Rights). The example of Belarus is important, not just as a reminder that the democratic freedoms and civil liberties we enjoy in Britain should not be taken for granted, but of the damage that a corrupted government can enforce onto its citizens.
Those dismissing the importance of institutions that guarantee citizens protections from human rights abuses from their own states should remind themselves that if Britain were to leave the ECHR it would be joining an exclusive club consisting of Belarus and Russia as the only nations in Europe not party to it. The election in Belarus is indicative of the insecurity of the Eastern European region as a whole, of the overarching reach of Russian interference and a reminder of the destabilising effect of the Russia-Ukraine conflict for Europe as a whole. However, the Belarus election must also remind us that democracy is a privilege and not a guarantee, we must ensure that in a time of rising hard right populist sentiments we protect our institutions, reject nationalism and bolster our democracy.